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Kazakhstan Premier League · Full time ·Matchday 28

Kairat Almaty vs Zhetysu

1 – 0 Full time

31′A. Baltabekov
46′L. KurginA. Tuyakbaev
63′G. MendonsaM. Abish
64′N. NurbolS. Abzalov
76′O. Jukkola
77′O. JukkolaI. Bekbolat
77′D. Kashken
87′M. Gual
90′D. Kashken
90′D. Kashken
90′Kairat Almaty

Almaty Central Stadium, AlmatyReferee: D. Gorda

Kairat Almaty 73%
Draw 17%
Zhetysu 10%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Kairat Almaty vs Zhetysu overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Kairat Almaty vs Zhetysu

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityKairat AlmatyDrawZhetysu
Model66.5%21.7%11.8%
Market74.9%15.6%9.5%
Final72.8%17.1%10.1%
Edge-2.1%+1.5%+0.6%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Kairat Almaty

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.03 vs 0.75.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Kairat Almaty ↓ / Zhetysu → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 1 12% 10% 2 13% 10% 3 9% 6% 4+ 7%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 93%
2+ goals 78%
3+ goals 53%
No goals 7%

Kairat Almaty and Zhetysu expected goals

Kairat Almaty 2.03
Zhetysu 0.75

Total expected goals: 2.78

Kairat Almaty and Zhetysu attack and defence ratings

Kairat Almaty

Attack 1.01 +1%
Defence 0.98 -2%

Zhetysu

Attack 0.67 -33%
Defence 1.37 +37%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Kairat Almaty vs Zhetysu: result vs prediction

Kairat Almaty 1 – 0 Zhetysu

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 28 fixtures

Kazakhstan Premier League

Before and after this match

Kairat Almaty vs Zhetysu markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Kairat Almaty 72.8% 1.37 -2.1% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 52.8% 1.89 — —
Both teams to score No 53.2% 1.88 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 89.9% 1.11 — —
Handicap -1 Kairat Almaty win 42.3% 2.36 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Kairat Almaty72.8%
Draw17.1%
Zhetysu10.1%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.552.8%
Under 2.547.2%
Both teams to scoreYes46.8%
No53.2%
Double chance1X (home or draw)89.9%
12 (either side)82.9%
X2 (draw or away)27.2%
Handicap -1Kairat Almaty win42.3%
Push (exactly one goal)24.0%
Loss33.7%
Correct score (top 3)2-012.8%
1-011.6%
1-110.3%

Kairat Almaty vs Zhetysu stats

Kairat Almaty and Zhetysu recent form

newest first
Kairat Almaty LLWWWL
Zhetysu LLWLLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Kairat Almaty and Zhetysu going into this match

league record before kick-off

Kairat Almaty record

  • They have won 17 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
  • They have kept 12 clean sheets in 26 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 26 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 10 matches.

Zhetysu record

  • They have won 5 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 26 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 26 matches.
  • 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Kairat Almaty vs Zhetysu head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

5Kairat Almaty wins 4Draws 1Zhetysu wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-21ZhetysuKairat AlmatyKazakhstan Premier League0-0
2025-10-05Kairat AlmatyZhetysuKazakhstan Premier League5-0
2025-06-14ZhetysuKairat AlmatyKazakhstan Premier League2-2
2024-10-26ZhetysuKairat AlmatyPremier League1-2
2024-04-06Kairat AlmatyZhetysuPremier League0-0
2023-09-17ZhetysuKairat AlmatyPremier League1-2
2023-04-09Kairat AlmatyZhetysuPremier League2-3
2021-10-30ZhetysuKairat AlmatyPremier League0-0
2021-08-08Kairat AlmatyZhetysuCup3-0
2021-07-10ZhetysuKairat AlmatyCup0-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Kairat Almaty vs Zhetysu odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 74.9%, draw 15.6%, away 9.5%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.20 6.98 11.60
Bet365 1.22 5.50 8.50
Betano 1.21 5.80 10.50
Betfair 1.18 6.00 10.50
Dafabet 1.23 5.80 9.00
Marathonbet 1.19 5.50 10.50
Pinnacle 1.21 5.79 9.06
SBO 1.21 5.22 8.10
William Hill 1.22 5.80 9.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.21 ▲ +0.11
X 5.80 ▼ -5.20
2 9.50 ▼ -3.25

13 snapshots recorded, from .