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Kazakhstan Premier League · Full time ·Matchday 27

FC Astana vs Kairat Almaty

1 – 0 Full time

11′A. Sadybekov
14′R. Karimov
54′A. KasymI. Miladinovic
60′O. Jukkola
73′O. JukkolaG. Mendonsa
73′EdmilsonM. Birkurmanov
81′D. KaramanA. Beysebekov
81′B. IslamkhanA. Merkel
86′I. Basic
86′M. Gual
87′E. TapalovA. Tuyakbaev
89′R. KarimovN. Buric

Astana Arena, AstanaReferee: D. Tevyashov

FC Astana 40%
Draw 26%
Kairat Almaty 33%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

FC Astana vs Kairat Almaty overview

Garuda Lions analysis: FC Astana vs Kairat Almaty

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityFC AstanaDrawKairat Almaty
Model57.1%23.3%19.6%
Market34.7%27.4%37.9%
Final40.3%26.4%33.3%
Edge+22.4%-4.1%-18.3%

Confidence: Low

Why FC Astana

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.01 vs 1.12.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
  • The market prices FC Astana below the model: +22.4 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

FC Astana ↓ / Kairat Almaty → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 8% 11% 5% 2 9% 10% 6% 3 6% 7% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 83%
3+ goals 61%
No goals 5%

FC Astana and Kairat Almaty expected goals

FC Astana 2.01
Kairat Almaty 1.12

Total expected goals: 3.13

FC Astana and Kairat Almaty attack and defence ratings

FC Astana

Attack 1.36 +36%
Defence 0.88 -12%

Kairat Almaty

Attack 1.13 +13%
Defence 1.00 +0%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

FC Astana vs Kairat Almaty: result vs prediction

FC Astana 1 – 0 Kairat Almaty

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 27 fixtures

Kazakhstan Premier League

Before and after this match

FC Astana vs Kairat Almaty markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 FC Astana 40.3% 2.48 +22.4% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 60.5% 1.65 — —
Both teams to score Yes 59.2% 1.69 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 73.6% 1.36 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 42.9% 2.33 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2FC Astana40.3%
Draw26.4%
Kairat Almaty33.3%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.560.5%
Under 2.539.5%
Both teams to scoreYes59.2%
No40.8%
Double chance1X (home or draw)66.7%
12 (either side)73.6%
X2 (draw or away)59.7%
Handicap -1FC Astana win34.9%
Push (exactly one goal)22.2%
Loss42.9%
Correct score (top 3)1-110.8%
2-19.9%
2-08.9%

FC Astana vs Kairat Almaty stats

FC Astana and Kairat Almaty recent form

newest first
FC Astana LWWDWW
Kairat Almaty LWWWLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

FC Astana and Kairat Almaty going into this match

league record before kick-off

FC Astana record

  • They have won 13 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
  • They have kept 7 clean sheets in 24 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 24 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.

Kairat Almaty record

  • They have won 17 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
  • They have kept 12 clean sheets in 25 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 10 matches.

FC Astana vs Kairat Almaty head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3FC Astana wins 2Draws 5Kairat Almaty wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-05Kairat AlmatyFC AstanaKazakhstan Premier League4-0
2025-10-26Kairat AlmatyFC AstanaKazakhstan Premier League1-1
2025-03-02FC AstanaKairat AlmatyKazakhstan Premier League1-1
2024-09-01Kairat AlmatyFC AstanaPremier League0-1
2024-06-29FC AstanaKairat AlmatyPremier League1-3
2023-08-27Kairat AlmatyFC AstanaPremier League1-0
2023-04-16FC AstanaKairat AlmatyPremier League0-3
2022-10-15Kairat AlmatyFC AstanaPremier League0-4
2022-05-14FC AstanaKairat AlmatyPremier League6-0
2021-11-20Kairat AlmatyFC AstanaCup3-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

FC Astana vs Kairat Almaty odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 34.7%, draw 27.4%, away 37.9%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.72 3.46 2.45
Bet365 2.45 3.40 2.38
Betano 2.62 3.40 2.42
Betfair 2.63 3.30 2.30
Marathonbet 2.59 3.30 2.33
Pinnacle 2.59 3.30 2.41
SBO 2.54 3.02 2.34
William Hill 2.62 3.10 2.40

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.60 ▼ -0.40
X 3.30 ▼ -0.06
2 2.39 ▲ +0.18

5 snapshots recorded, from .