Ordabasy
vs
FC Astana
1 – 0 Full time
| 10′ | A. Kasym | ||
| 29′ | K. Kazukolovas | ||
| 41′ | K. Bartolec | ||
| 46′ | K. BartolecA. Merkel | ||
| 60′ | A. Amanovic | ||
| 60′ | B. IslamkhanN. Buric | ||
| 61′ | M. AbrayevD. Marat | ||
| 64′ | S. Maliy | ||
| 65′ | A. Merkel | ||
| 67′ | Leo NatelA. Nurymbet | ||
| 67′ | M. CapatinaT. Keita | ||
| 74′ | B. KalaicaI. Miladinovic | ||
| 78′ | Z. Amir | ||
| 82′ | Z. AmirM. Toktybay | ||
| 84′ | A. KasymS. Anuarov |
Ordabasy vs FC Astana overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Ordabasy vs FC Astana
| Probability | Ordabasy | Draw | FC Astana |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53.4% | 23.5% | 23.0% |
| Market | 49.2% | 26.5% | 24.4% |
| Final | 50.2% | 25.7% | 24.0% |
| Edge | +4.3% | -2.9% | -1.3% |
Why Ordabasy
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.00 vs 1.27.
- The market prices Ordabasy below the model: +4.3 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Ordabasy and FC Astana expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.27
Ordabasy and FC Astana attack and defence ratings
Ordabasy
FC Astana
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Ordabasy vs FC Astana: result vs prediction
Ordabasy 1 – 0 FC Astana
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 26 fixtures
Before and after this match
Ordabasy vs FC Astana markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ordabasy | 50.2% | 1.99 | +4.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.4% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.1% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.0% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 46.7% | 2.14 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ordabasy | 50.2% |
| Draw | 25.7% | |
| FC Astana | 24.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 36.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.1% |
| No | 36.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 49.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Ordabasy win | 32.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.4% | |
| Loss | 46.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.6% |
| 2-1 | 9.7% | |
| 2-0 | 7.6% |
Ordabasy vs FC Astana stats
Ordabasy and FC Astana recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Ordabasy and FC Astana going into this match
Ordabasy record
- They have won 17 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 7 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FC Astana record
- They have won 13 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 23 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
Ordabasy vs FC Astana head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | FC Astana | Ordabasy | Kazakhstan Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2025-07-13 | Ordabasy | FC Astana | Kazakhstan Premier League | 1-0 |
| 2025-04-05 | FC Astana | Ordabasy | Kazakhstan Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2024-09-22 | Ordabasy | FC Astana | Premier League | 2-4 |
| 2024-06-16 | FC Astana | Ordabasy | Premier League | 0-1 |
| 2023-09-24 | Ordabasy | FC Astana | Premier League | 1-2 |
| 2023-07-06 | Ordabasy | FC Astana | Cup | 2-0 |
| 2023-06-28 | FC Astana | Ordabasy | Cup | 1-0 |
| 2023-04-02 | FC Astana | Ordabasy | Premier League | 2-0 |
| 2023-02-25 | FC Astana | Ordabasy | Super Cup | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Ordabasy vs FC Astana odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 49.4%, draw 26.3%, away 24.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.38 | 3.32 | 2.92 |
| Bet365 | 1.80 | 3.50 | 3.60 |
| Betfair | 1.85 | 3.50 | 3.60 |
| Dafabet | 1.79 | 3.45 | 3.85 |
| Marathonbet | 1.81 | 3.38 | 3.82 |
| Pinnacle | 1.88 | 3.32 | 3.69 |
| Unibet | 1.67 | 3.50 | 3.95 |
| William Hill | 1.83 | 3.40 | 3.70 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .