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Kazakhstan Premier League · Full time ·Matchday 26

Kairat Almaty vs FK Tobol Kostanay

1 – 4 Full time

18′U. Milovanovic
28′M. Myakish
34′L. KurginA. Tuyakbaev
40′M. Gual
44′U. Milovanovic
46′O. BaybekLucas Africo
58′O. JukkolaI. Bekbolat
63′V. Lisakovich
64′M. Gual
81′L. Guerra
82′A. TalalD. Zhumat
83′A. MartynovichA. Shirobokov
84′EdmilsonM. Birkurmanov
90′N. ZhagorovR. Senhadji

Almaty Central Stadium, AlmatyReferee: S. Karabaev

Kairat Almaty 63%
Draw 22%
FK Tobol Kostanay 15%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Kairat Almaty vs FK Tobol Kostanay overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Kairat Almaty vs FK Tobol Kostanay

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityKairat AlmatyDrawFK Tobol Kostanay
Model57.8%24.9%17.2%
Market65.3%21.0%13.7%
Final63.4%22.0%14.5%
Edge-7.5%+3.9%+3.6%

Confidence: Low

Why Kairat Almaty

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.81 vs 0.90.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Kairat Almaty ↓ / FK Tobol Kosta → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 1 11% 12% 2 11% 10% 3 7% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 92%
2+ goals 76%
3+ goals 51%
No goals 8%

Kairat Almaty and FK Tobol Kostanay expected goals

Kairat Almaty 1.81
FK Tobol Kostanay 0.90

Total expected goals: 2.71

Kairat Almaty and FK Tobol Kostanay attack and defence ratings

Kairat Almaty

Attack 1.23 +23%
Defence 0.76 -24%

FK Tobol Kostanay

Attack 1.06 +6%
Defence 0.99 -1%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Kairat Almaty vs FK Tobol Kostanay: result vs prediction

Kairat Almaty 1 – 4 FK Tobol Kostanay

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 26 fixtures

Kazakhstan Premier League

Before and after this match

Kairat Almaty vs FK Tobol Kostanay markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Kairat Almaty 63.4% 1.58 -7.5% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 50.9% 1.97 — —
Both teams to score Yes 50.7% 1.97 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 85.5% 1.17 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 42.3% 2.36 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Kairat Almaty63.4%
Draw22.0%
FK Tobol Kostanay14.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.550.9%
Under 2.549.1%
Both teams to scoreYes50.7%
No49.3%
Double chance1X (home or draw)85.5%
12 (either side)78.0%
X2 (draw or away)36.6%
Handicap -1Kairat Almaty win33.8%
Push (exactly one goal)23.8%
Loss42.3%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.9%
1-011.0%
2-010.9%

Kairat Almaty vs FK Tobol Kostanay stats

Kairat Almaty and FK Tobol Kostanay recent form

newest first
Kairat Almaty WWWLLW
FK Tobol Kostanay WLWWLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Kairat Almaty and FK Tobol Kostanay going into this match

league record before kick-off

Kairat Almaty record

  • They have won 17 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
  • They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
  • They have kept 12 clean sheets in 24 matches.

FK Tobol Kostanay record

  • They have won 9 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 24 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 24 matches.

Kairat Almaty vs FK Tobol Kostanay head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4Kairat Almaty wins 4Draws 2FK Tobol Kostanay wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-11FK Tobol KostanayKairat AlmatyKazakhstan Premier League1-1
2026-02-28Kairat AlmatyFK Tobol KostanaySuper Cup2-2
2025-07-26FK Tobol KostanayKairat AlmatyKazakhstan Premier League1-3
2025-04-27Kairat AlmatyFK Tobol KostanayKazakhstan Premier League2-1
2024-08-25Kairat AlmatyFK Tobol KostanayPremier League2-2
2024-06-15FK Tobol KostanayKairat AlmatyPremier League1-0
2023-08-13Kairat AlmatyFK Tobol KostanayPremier League2-1
2023-05-06FK Tobol KostanayKairat AlmatyPremier League2-3
2022-09-05Kairat AlmatyFK Tobol KostanayPremier League2-3
2022-04-16FK Tobol KostanayKairat AlmatyPremier League2-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Kairat Almaty vs FK Tobol Kostanay odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 64.9%, draw 21.1%, away 14.0%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.42 4.54 7.12
Bet365 1.44 4.10 5.50
Betano 1.44 4.30 6.10
Betfair 1.33 4.60 7.00
Marathonbet 1.37 4.30 6.75
Pinnacle 1.36 4.42 6.81
SBO 1.36 3.93 5.51
Unibet 1.48 3.75 5.20
William Hill 1.40 4.00 6.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.39 ▼ -0.41
X 4.30 ▲ +0.67
2 6.62 ▲ +2.57

11 snapshots recorded, from .