Kazakhstan Premier League
·
Full time
·Matchday 27
FK Tobol Kostanay
vs
Yelimay Semey
0 – 2 Full time
| 16′ | F. Placca | ||
| 23′ | S. Tanasijevic | ||
| 30′ | M. Mittendorfer | ||
| 40′ | A. Zhaksylykov | ||
| 46′ | N. ZhagorovP. Ndiaye | ||
| 67′ | R. OrazovChina | ||
| 67′ | F. PlaccaI. Sviridov | ||
| 68′ | China | ||
| 71′ | L. GuerraA. Zuev | ||
| 73′ | A. ZhumakhanovM. Belancic | ||
| 84′ | A. TagybergenD. Zhumat | ||
| 84′ | A. BakhtiyarovZ. Payruz | ||
| 84′ | A. ZhaksylykovR. Murtazaev | ||
| 90′ | M. MyakishA. Zinadin | ||
| 90′ | M. Belancic |
FK Tobol Kostanay
48%
Draw
25%
Yelimay Semey
27%
FK Tobol Kostanay vs Yelimay Semey overview
Garuda Lions analysis: FK Tobol Kostanay vs Yelimay Semey
| Probability | FK Tobol Kostanay | Draw | Yelimay Semey |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 63.6% | 21.2% | 15.2% |
| Market | 42.8% | 26.5% | 30.7% |
| Final | 48.0% | 25.1% | 26.9% |
| Edge | +20.8% | -5.3% | -15.5% |
Why FK Tobol Kostanay
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.20 vs 1.01.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices FK Tobol Kostanay below the model: +20.8 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
95%
2+ goals
84%
3+ goals
62%
No goals
5%
FK Tobol Kostanay and Yelimay Semey expected goals
FK Tobol Kostanay
2.20
Yelimay Semey
1.01
Total expected goals: 3.21
FK Tobol Kostanay and Yelimay Semey attack and defence ratings
FK Tobol Kostanay
Attack
1.25 +25%
Defence
0.96 -4%
Yelimay Semey
Attack
0.94 -6%
Defence
1.19 +19%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
FK Tobol Kostanay vs Yelimay Semey: result vs prediction
FK Tobol Kostanay 0 – 2 Yelimay Semey
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 27 fixtures
Before and after this match
FK Tobol Kostanay vs Yelimay Semey markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FK Tobol Kostanay | 48.0% | 2.08 | +20.8% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.1% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.3% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.9% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | FK Tobol Kostanay win | 41.3% | 2.42 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FK Tobol Kostanay | 48.0% |
| Draw | 25.1% | |
| Yelimay Semey | 26.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 37.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.3% |
| No | 42.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 52.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | FK Tobol Kostanay win | 41.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.3% | |
| Loss | 36.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.9% |
| 1-1 | 9.9% | |
| 2-0 | 9.8% |
FK Tobol Kostanay vs Yelimay Semey stats
FK Tobol Kostanay and Yelimay Semey recent form
| FK Tobol Kostanay |
WWLWWL |
| Yelimay Semey |
WLLDWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
FK Tobol Kostanay and Yelimay Semey going into this match
FK Tobol Kostanay record
- They have won 10 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 25 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Yelimay Semey record
- They have won 9 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 24 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FK Tobol Kostanay vs Yelimay Semey head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
2FK Tobol Kostanay wins
1Draws
2Yelimay Semey wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | Yelimay Semey | FK Tobol Kostanay | Kazakhstan Premier League | 1-0 |
| 2025-07-05 | Yelimay Semey | FK Tobol Kostanay | Kazakhstan Premier League | 2-3 |
| 2025-03-30 | FK Tobol Kostanay | Yelimay Semey | Kazakhstan Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2024-09-15 | Yelimay Semey | FK Tobol Kostanay | Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2024-03-06 | FK Tobol Kostanay | Yelimay Semey | Premier League | 4-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
FK Tobol Kostanay vs Yelimay Semey odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 42.8%, draw 26.5%, away 30.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.15 | 3.51 | 3.18 |
| Bet365 | 2.10 | 3.40 | 2.90 |
| Betano | 2.18 | 3.45 | 2.95 |
| Betfair | 2.10 | 3.60 | 2.88 |
| Marathonbet | 2.05 | 3.34 | 3.02 |
| Pinnacle | 2.08 | 3.39 | 3.04 |
| SBO | 2.04 | 3.26 | 2.83 |
| William Hill | 2.15 | 3.25 | 2.90 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.10 ▼ -0.03
X
3.40 ▼ -0.06
2
2.92 ▼ -0.14
5 snapshots recorded, from .