Yelimay Semey
vs
Aktobe
Garuda Lions Prediction: Yelimay Semey
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
Yelimay Semey vs Aktobe overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Yelimay Semey vs Aktobe
| Probability | Yelimay Semey | Draw | Aktobe |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 36.7% | 26.8% | 36.5% |
| Market | 42.9% | 26.2% | 30.8% |
| Final | 41.3% | 26.4% | 32.3% |
| Edge | -6.3% | +0.6% | +5.7% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.14, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Yelimay Semey vs Aktobe match preview
Yelimay Semey faces Aktobe in a closely contested matchup in the Kazakhstan Premier League. Both teams have equal probabilities of winning at 37%, with a 27% chance of a draw. The expected goals are nearly identical, with Yelimay Semey at 1.48 and Aktobe at 1.47, indicating a balanced offensive performance. Recent form shows Yelimay Semey with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches, while Aktobe has two wins, two draws, and a loss.
The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1 in favor of Yelimay Semey, occurring with an 8% probability. Additionally, there is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals in the match, and both teams are expected to score with a 61% likelihood. In their last three encounters, Yelimay Semey has won twice, while Aktobe has secured one victory.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Yelimay Semey and Aktobe expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.95
Yelimay Semey and Aktobe attack and defence ratings
Yelimay Semey
Aktobe
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 28 fixtures
Before and after this match
Yelimay Semey vs Aktobe markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Yelimay Semey | 41.3% | 2.42 | -6.3% | 2.14 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.5% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.6% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.6% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 63.3% | 1.58 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Yelimay Semey | 41.3% |
| Draw | 26.4% | |
| Aktobe | 32.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 43.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.6% |
| No | 39.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 67.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 58.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Yelimay Semey win | 18.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.7% | |
| Loss | 63.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.5% |
| 2-1 | 8.4% | |
| 1-2 | 8.4% |
Yelimay Semey vs Aktobe stats
Yelimay Semey and Aktobe recent form
| Yelimay Semey |
WWLLDW |
| Aktobe |
DWWLWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Yelimay Semey and Aktobe season so far
Yelimay Semey record
- They have won 10 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Aktobe record
- They have won 12 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 26 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Yelimay Semey vs Aktobe head-to-head
Last 8 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | Aktobe | Yelimay Semey | Cup | 2-1 |
| 2026-03-21 | Aktobe | Yelimay Semey | Kazakhstan Premier League | 1-4 |
| 2025-08-10 | Yelimay Semey | Aktobe | Kazakhstan Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2025-05-11 | Aktobe | Yelimay Semey | Kazakhstan Premier League | 1-0 |
| 2024-08-31 | Aktobe | Yelimay Semey | Premier League | 1-3 |
| 2024-06-19 | Yelimay Semey | Aktobe | Cup | 2-1 |
| 2024-06-16 | Yelimay Semey | Aktobe | Premier League | 2-2 |
| 2024-05-29 | Aktobe | Yelimay Semey | Cup | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Yelimay Semey vs Aktobe odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 42.9%, draw 26.2%, away 30.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.14 | 3.68 | 3.07 |
| Bet365 | 2.10 | 3.40 | 2.90 |
| Betano | 2.12 | 3.45 | 3.00 |
| Betfair | 2.00 | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| Dafabet | 2.13 | 3.45 | 2.95 |
| Marathonbet | 2.04 | 3.50 | 2.92 |
| Pinnacle | 2.14 | 3.42 | 2.90 |
| William Hill | 2.10 | 3.40 | 2.90 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .