Aktobe
vs
Ordabasy
Garuda Lions Prediction: Ordabasy
1 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Aktobe vs Ordabasy overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Aktobe vs Ordabasy
| Probability | Aktobe | Draw | Ordabasy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 23.7% | 25.7% | 50.6% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 23.7% | 25.7% | 50.6% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Ordabasy
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.76 vs 1.15.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.18, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Aktobe vs Ordabasy match preview
Aktobe faces Ordabasy in the Kazakhstan Premier League with kickoff scheduled for October 17, 2026. The model indicates a probability of 24% for an Aktobe victory, while Ordabasy is favored at 51%, with a draw at 26%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, occurring at a rate of 10%. Both teams show a strong potential for scoring, with a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% likelihood that both teams will find the net.
In terms of recent form, Aktobe has recorded two wins, two draws, and a loss in their last five matches, while Ordabasy has been in strong form with four wins and a loss in the same period. The head-to-head record shows Aktobe with no wins, two draws, and one loss against Ordabasy in their last three encounters. Expected goals suggest Aktobe will score 1.15 and Ordabasy 1.76.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Aktobe and Ordabasy expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.91
Aktobe and Ordabasy attack and defence ratings
Aktobe
Ordabasy
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 23 fixtures
Before and after this match
Aktobe vs Ordabasy markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ordabasy | 50.6% | 1.98 | — | 2.18 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.6% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.6% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 76.3% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.4% | 2.02 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aktobe | 23.7% |
| Draw | 25.7% | |
| Ordabasy | 50.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 44.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.6% |
| No | 42.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 49.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 76.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Ordabasy win | 28.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.1% | |
| Loss | 49.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.1% |
| 1-2 | 9.7% | |
| 0-1 | 8.5% |
Aktobe vs Ordabasy stats
Aktobe and Ordabasy recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Aktobe and Ordabasy season so far
Aktobe record
- They have won 12 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 26 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Ordabasy record
- They have won 18 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 7 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Aktobe vs Ordabasy head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Ordabasy | Aktobe | Kazakhstan Premier League | 2-0 |
| 2025-10-26 | Aktobe | Ordabasy | Kazakhstan Premier League | 2-2 |
| 2025-03-01 | Ordabasy | Aktobe | Kazakhstan Premier League | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Aktobe vs Ordabasy odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 28.7%, draw 27.9%, away 43.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.52 | 3.12 | 2.18 |
| Betano | 3.15 | 3.30 | 2.12 |
| Dafabet | 3.20 | 3.30 | 2.08 |
| Superbet | 3.20 | 3.30 | 2.12 |
| Unibet | 3.05 | 3.10 | 2.06 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
3 snapshots recorded, from .