Ordabasy
vs
Zhenys
Garuda Lions Prediction: Ordabasy
3 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.15 vs 0.76.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Ordabasy is the favourite, not a value bet.
Ordabasy vs Zhenys overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Ordabasy vs Zhenys
| Probability | Ordabasy | Draw | Zhenys |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 83.2% | 11.5% | 5.3% |
| Market | 76.4% | 16.3% | 7.3% |
| Final | 78.1% | 15.1% | 6.8% |
| Edge | +1.7% | -1.2% | -0.5% |
Why Ordabasy
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.15 vs 0.76.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.24, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.1% per unit staked (our 78.1% × 1.24 − 1).
Ordabasy vs Zhenys match preview
Ordabasy enters the match against Zhenys with a strong probability of winning at 83%, supported by their recent form of four wins in their last six matches. The expected goals for Ordabasy stand at 3.14, indicating a potent attacking threat, while Zhenys has an expected goals figure of just 0.76, reflecting their struggles in front of goal.
Historically, Ordabasy has performed well against Zhenys, with two wins and one draw in their last three encounters, leaving Zhenys without a victory. The model predicts a most likely scoreline of 3-0 in favor of Ordabasy, with a 75% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored in the match. Both teams have a 52% chance of scoring, suggesting that while Ordabasy is favored, Zhenys may still find opportunities.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Ordabasy and Zhenys expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.91
Ordabasy and Zhenys attack and defence ratings
Ordabasy
Zhenys
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 29 fixtures
Before and after this match
Ordabasy vs Zhenys markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ordabasy | 78.1% | 1.28 | +1.7% | 1.24 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.8% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.3% | 1.95 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 93.2% | 1.07 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Ordabasy win | 66.1% | 1.51 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ordabasy | 78.1% |
| Draw | 15.1% | |
| Zhenys | 6.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 25.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.3% |
| No | 48.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 93.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 84.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 21.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Ordabasy win | 66.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.1% | |
| Loss | 16.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 3-0 | 10.5% |
| 2-0 | 10.0% | |
| 4-0 | 8.2% |
Ordabasy vs Zhenys stats
Ordabasy and Zhenys recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Ordabasy and Zhenys season so far
Ordabasy record
- They have won 21 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 7 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Zhenys record
- They have won 8 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 28 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
Ordabasy vs Zhenys head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-16 | Zhenys | Ordabasy | Kazakhstan Premier League | 0-2 |
| 2025-09-13 | Ordabasy | Zhenys | Kazakhstan Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2025-05-30 | Zhenys | Ordabasy | Kazakhstan Premier League | 2-2 |
| 2024-10-26 | Ordabasy | Zhenys | Premier League | 1-2 |
| 2024-06-23 | Zhenys | Ordabasy | Premier League | 1-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Ordabasy vs Zhenys odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 76.4%, draw 16.3%, away 7.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.21 | 5.53 | 18.00 |
| Bet365 | 1.20 | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| Betano | 1.24 | 4.80 | 13.00 |
| Betfair | 1.15 | 6.50 | 13.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.22 | 5.20 | 12.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.16 | 5.80 | 12.25 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .