Okzhetpes
vs
Kaspiy
Garuda Lions Prediction: Okzhetpes
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.87 vs 1.35.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Okzhetpes is the favourite, not a value bet.
Okzhetpes vs Kaspiy overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Okzhetpes vs Kaspiy
| Probability | Okzhetpes | Draw | Kaspiy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48.5% | 24.6% | 26.9% |
| Market | 54.9% | 24.5% | 20.6% |
| Final | 53.3% | 24.5% | 22.2% |
| Edge | -1.6% | +0.0% | +1.6% |
Why Okzhetpes
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.87 vs 1.35.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.75, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.7% per unit staked (our 53.3% × 1.75 − 1).
Okzhetpes vs Kaspiy match preview
In the upcoming match between Okzhetpes and Kaspiy, Okzhetpes holds a 53% probability of winning, while Kaspiy has a 22% chance. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 2-1 in favor of Okzhetpes, with an expected goals metric of 1.87 for Okzhetpes and 1.35 for Kaspiy. Additionally, there is a 62% likelihood of over 2.5 goals being scored and a 64% chance that both teams will find the net.
Recent form shows Okzhetpes with three wins in their last six matches, while Kaspiy has won three out of their last six as well. In their last nine encounters, Okzhetpes has secured five victories, Kaspiy has two wins, and there have been two draws. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating moderate certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Okzhetpes and Kaspiy expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.22
Okzhetpes and Kaspiy attack and defence ratings
Okzhetpes
Kaspiy
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 29 fixtures
Before and after this match
Okzhetpes vs Kaspiy markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Okzhetpes | 53.3% | 1.88 | -1.6% | 1.75 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.4% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.7% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.8% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.5% | 1.94 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Okzhetpes | 53.3% |
| Draw | 24.5% | |
| Kaspiy | 22.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 37.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.7% |
| No | 36.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 46.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Okzhetpes win | 27.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.8% | |
| Loss | 51.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.1% |
| 2-1 | 9.4% | |
| 2-0 | 7.0% |
Okzhetpes vs Kaspiy stats
Okzhetpes and Kaspiy recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Okzhetpes and Kaspiy season so far
Okzhetpes record
- They have won 14 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Kaspiy record
- They have won 9 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Okzhetpes vs Kaspiy head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-17 | Kaspiy | Okzhetpes | Kazakhstan Premier League | 1-3 |
| 2024-07-17 | Kaspiy | Okzhetpes | 1. Division | 0-1 |
| 2024-06-14 | Okzhetpes | Kaspiy | 1. Division | 1-0 |
| 2023-08-26 | Okzhetpes | Kaspiy | Premier League | 3-3 |
| 2023-04-15 | Kaspiy | Okzhetpes | Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2020-11-21 | Kaspiy | Okzhetpes | Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2020-09-18 | Okzhetpes | Kaspiy | Premier League | 2-2 |
| 2018-08-15 | Kaspiy | Okzhetpes | 1. Division | 0-2 |
| 2018-06-20 | Okzhetpes | Kaspiy | 1. Division | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Okzhetpes vs Kaspiy odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 54.9%, draw 24.5%, away 20.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.63 | 3.93 | 5.10 |
| Bet365 | 1.60 | 3.70 | 4.50 |
| Betano | 1.70 | 3.70 | 4.30 |
| Betfair | 1.65 | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| Dafabet | 1.69 | 3.60 | 4.30 |
| Marathonbet | 1.55 | 3.74 | 4.85 |
| William Hill | 1.75 | 3.40 | 4.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .