Kaspiy
vs
Kyzyl-Zhar
Garuda Lions Prediction: Kaspiy
1 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.45 vs 1.12.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Kaspiy vs Kyzyl-Zhar overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Kaspiy vs Kyzyl-Zhar
| Probability | Kaspiy | Draw | Kyzyl-Zhar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43.3% | 28.6% | 28.1% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 43.3% | 28.6% | 28.1% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Kaspiy
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.45 vs 1.12.
Kaspiy vs Kyzyl-Zhar match preview
Kaspiy and Kyzyl-Zhar are set to clash in the Kazakhstan Premier League, with Kaspiy holding a slight edge in the probabilities at 43% compared to Kyzyl-Zhar's 28%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0 in favor of Kaspiy, reflecting their expected goals of 1.45 against Kyzyl-Zhar's 1.12. Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Kaspiy recording a sequence of L-D-W-W-L-L, while Kyzyl-Zhar's recent matches show W-L-W-D-L-L.
The probability of over 2.5 goals stands at 48%, while both teams are expected to score in 53% of the scenarios. In their last head-to-head encounter, Kyzyl-Zhar emerged victorious, with Kaspiy yet to secure a win against them. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Kaspiy and Kyzyl-Zhar expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.57
Kaspiy and Kyzyl-Zhar attack and defence ratings
Kaspiy
Kyzyl-Zhar
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 30 fixtures
Before and after this match
Kaspiy vs Kyzyl-Zhar markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kaspiy | 43.3% | 2.31 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.5% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.9% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.9% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 56.7% | 1.76 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kaspiy | 43.3% |
| Draw | 28.6% | |
| Kyzyl-Zhar | 28.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 52.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.9% |
| No | 47.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 56.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Kaspiy win | 21.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.6% | |
| Loss | 56.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.7% |
| 1-0 | 9.8% | |
| 2-1 | 9.0% |
Kaspiy vs Kyzyl-Zhar stats
Kaspiy and Kyzyl-Zhar recent form
| Kaspiy |
LDWWLL |
| Kyzyl-Zhar |
WLWDLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Kaspiy and Kyzyl-Zhar season so far
Kaspiy record
- They have won 9 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Kyzyl-Zhar record
- They have won 7 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 28 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Kaspiy vs Kyzyl-Zhar head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-08 | Kyzyl-Zhar | Kaspiy | Kazakhstan Premier League | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.