FK Tobol Kostanay
vs
Aktobe
Garuda Lions Prediction: FK Tobol Kostanay
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.23 vs 1.48.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
FK Tobol Kostanay vs Aktobe overview
Garuda Lions analysis: FK Tobol Kostanay vs Aktobe
| Probability | FK Tobol Kostanay | Draw | Aktobe |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53.8% | 21.9% | 24.4% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 53.8% | 21.9% | 24.4% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why FK Tobol Kostanay
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.23 vs 1.48.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
FK Tobol Kostanay vs Aktobe match preview
FK Tobol Kostanay hosts Aktobe in a Kazakhstan Premier League match with a kickoff scheduled for October 31, 2026. According to our model, FK Tobol Kostanay has a 52% probability of winning, while Aktobe stands at 25%, and a draw is estimated at 23%. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-1 in favor of FK Tobol Kostanay, with a 9% likelihood. The expected goals for FK Tobol Kostanay are 2.13, compared to Aktobe's 1.46.
Recent form shows FK Tobol Kostanay with a record of D-W-W-L-W-W, while Aktobe has L-W-D-W-W-L. In their last three encounters, FK Tobol Kostanay has one win, one draw, and Aktobe also has one win. The model indicates a high probability of over 2.5 goals at 70% and a 68% chance for both teams to score. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
FK Tobol Kostanay and Aktobe expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.70
FK Tobol Kostanay and Aktobe attack and defence ratings
FK Tobol Kostanay
Aktobe
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 30 fixtures
Before and after this match
FK Tobol Kostanay vs Aktobe markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FK Tobol Kostanay | 53.8% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71.5% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.7% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 78.1% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 46.2% | 2.16 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FK Tobol Kostanay | 53.8% |
| Draw | 21.9% | |
| Aktobe | 24.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 28.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.7% |
| No | 30.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 46.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | FK Tobol Kostanay win | 33.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.2% | |
| Loss | 46.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.0% |
| 1-1 | 8.9% | |
| 3-1 | 6.7% |
FK Tobol Kostanay vs Aktobe stats
FK Tobol Kostanay and Aktobe recent form
| FK Tobol Kostanay |
DWWLWW |
| Aktobe |
DLWDWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
FK Tobol Kostanay and Aktobe season so far
FK Tobol Kostanay record
- They have won 12 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 28 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
Aktobe record
- They have won 13 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 28 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FK Tobol Kostanay vs Aktobe head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-07 | Aktobe | FK Tobol Kostanay | Kazakhstan Premier League | 4-1 |
| 2025-07-20 | Aktobe | FK Tobol Kostanay | Kazakhstan Premier League | 0-0 |
| 2025-04-19 | FK Tobol Kostanay | Aktobe | Kazakhstan Premier League | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.