Irtysh
vs
Ordabasy
Garuda Lions Prediction: Ordabasy
0 – 2 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.35 vs 0.91.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Irtysh vs Ordabasy overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Irtysh vs Ordabasy
| Probability | Irtysh | Draw | Ordabasy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 12.0% | 19.2% | 68.7% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 12.0% | 19.2% | 68.7% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Ordabasy
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.35 vs 0.91.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Irtysh vs Ordabasy match preview
In the upcoming Kazakhstan Premier League match, Irtysh faces Ordabasy with a significant disparity in expected performance. Our model assigns Irtysh a 10% chance of winning, while Ordabasy is favored at 71%. The most probable scoreline is 0-2, occurring with a 13% likelihood, and there is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored in the match.
Recent form indicates that Irtysh has struggled, recording two losses followed by a win, and then another loss, while Ordabasy has been more consistent with four wins and a draw in their last six matches. The expected goals suggest Irtysh will struggle to find the net, projected at 0.74, compared to Ordabasy's 2.28. Both teams have met once recently, resulting in no wins for either side, with one draw.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Irtysh and Ordabasy expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.26
Irtysh and Ordabasy attack and defence ratings
Irtysh
Ordabasy
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 30 fixtures
Before and after this match
Irtysh vs Ordabasy markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ordabasy | 68.7% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.3% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.9% | 1.82 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 88.0% | 1.14 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Ordabasy win | 46.8% | 2.14 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Irtysh | 12.0% |
| Draw | 19.2% | |
| Ordabasy | 68.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 36.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.9% |
| No | 45.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 31.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 80.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 88.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Ordabasy win | 46.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.0% | |
| Loss | 31.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-2 | 10.6% |
| 1-2 | 9.6% | |
| 1-1 | 9.0% |
Irtysh vs Ordabasy stats
Irtysh and Ordabasy recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Irtysh and Ordabasy season so far
Irtysh record
- They have won 6 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 28 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Ordabasy record
- They have won 21 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 7 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Irtysh vs Ordabasy head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-07 | Ordabasy | Irtysh | Kazakhstan Premier League | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.