FC Astana
vs
Kaspiy
Garuda Lions Prediction: FC Astana
2 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
FC Astana vs Kaspiy overview
Garuda Lions analysis: FC Astana vs Kaspiy
| Probability | FC Astana | Draw | Kaspiy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 63.8% | 21.9% | 14.3% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 63.8% | 21.9% | 14.3% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why FC Astana
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.09 vs 0.90.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.53, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
FC Astana vs Kaspiy match preview
FC Astana is set to face Kaspiy in the Kazakhstan Premier League on October 18, 2026. The model gives FC Astana a 64% chance of winning, while Kaspiy has a 14% probability of securing a victory, and a draw stands at 22%. The expected goals for FC Astana are 2.09, compared to Kaspiy's 0.90, indicating a significant offensive advantage for the home side. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-0, with a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored in the match.
In terms of recent form, FC Astana has recorded three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five matches, while Kaspiy has two wins, two draws, and one loss in the same timeframe. The last head-to-head encounter saw Kaspiy emerge victorious, continuing their unbeaten streak against FC Astana. The confidence grade for this matchup is C, reflecting the model's probabilistic analysis.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
FC Astana and Kaspiy expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.99
FC Astana and Kaspiy attack and defence ratings
FC Astana
Kaspiy
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 23 fixtures
Before and after this match
FC Astana vs Kaspiy markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Astana | 63.8% | 1.57 | — | 1.53 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.5% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.0% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.7% | 1.17 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | FC Astana win | 40.7% | 2.45 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Astana | 63.8% |
| Draw | 21.9% | |
| Kaspiy | 14.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 42.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.0% |
| No | 47.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 36.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Astana win | 40.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.1% | |
| Loss | 36.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 11.0% |
| 1-1 | 10.4% | |
| 2-1 | 9.9% |
FC Astana vs Kaspiy stats
FC Astana and Kaspiy recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
FC Astana and Kaspiy season so far
FC Astana record
- They have won 14 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
Kaspiy record
- They have won 7 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FC Astana vs Kaspiy head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Kaspiy | FC Astana | Kazakhstan Premier League | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
FC Astana vs Kaspiy odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 60.4%, draw 23.2%, away 16.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.46 | 3.92 | 8.10 |
| Betano | 1.53 | 3.90 | 5.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.50 | 3.90 | 5.80 |
| Superbet | 1.51 | 4.00 | 5.55 |
| Unibet | 1.46 | 3.85 | 5.25 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
3 snapshots recorded, from .