FC Astana
vs
Kaspiy
2 – 2 Full time
| 23′ | D. Epton | ||
| 26′ | M. Tomasov | ||
| 35′ | K. Sylla | ||
| 35′ | A. Beysebekov | ||
| 49′ | D. Aripov | ||
| 60′ | S. BasmanovD. Marat | ||
| 60′ | B. IslamkhanN. Buric | ||
| 60′ | A. BeysebekovD. Karaman | ||
| 64′ | N. NdombasiI. Umaev | ||
| 64′ | K. SyllaR. Abylaykhan | ||
| 68′ | D. Aripov | ||
| 71′ | A. Amaral | ||
| 74′ | R. KarimovA. Merkel | ||
| 83′ | D. EptonM. Serikbay | ||
| 90′ | V. KlimovichB. Kabylan | ||
| 90′ | P. SedkoD. Nechayev |
FC Astana vs Kaspiy overview
Garuda Lions analysis: FC Astana vs Kaspiy
| Probability | FC Astana | Draw | Kaspiy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 57.7% | 24.3% | 17.9% |
| Market | 71.6% | 17.9% | 10.5% |
| Final | 68.1% | 19.5% | 12.4% |
| Edge | -3.5% | +1.6% | +1.9% |
Why FC Astana
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.89 vs 0.96.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
FC Astana and Kaspiy expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.85
FC Astana and Kaspiy attack and defence ratings
FC Astana
Kaspiy
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
FC Astana vs Kaspiy: result vs prediction
FC Astana 2 – 2 Kaspiy
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 23 fixtures
Before and after this match
FC Astana vs Kaspiy markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Astana | 68.1% | 1.47 | -3.5% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.2% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.6% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.6% | 1.14 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 42.0% | 2.38 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Astana | 68.1% |
| Draw | 19.5% | |
| Kaspiy | 12.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 45.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.6% |
| No | 46.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 80.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 31.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Astana win | 34.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.3% | |
| Loss | 42.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.6% |
| 2-0 | 10.2% | |
| 2-1 | 9.9% |
FC Astana vs Kaspiy stats
FC Astana and Kaspiy recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
FC Astana and Kaspiy going into this match
FC Astana record
- They have won 15 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Kaspiy record
- They have won 9 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FC Astana vs Kaspiy head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Kaspiy | FC Astana | Kazakhstan Premier League | 1-0 |
| 2023-07-02 | Kaspiy | FC Astana | Premier League | 1-2 |
| 2023-06-24 | FC Astana | Kaspiy | Premier League | 3-1 |
| 2022-09-10 | Kaspiy | FC Astana | Premier League | 0-3 |
| 2022-04-22 | FC Astana | Kaspiy | Premier League | 4-0 |
| 2021-09-22 | Kaspiy | FC Astana | Cup | 0-1 |
| 2021-08-21 | FC Astana | Kaspiy | Cup | 3-3 |
| 2021-05-29 | Kaspiy | FC Astana | Premier League | 2-2 |
| 2021-03-19 | FC Astana | Kaspiy | Premier League | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
FC Astana vs Kaspiy odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 67.0%, draw 19.4%, away 13.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.27 | 5.70 | 9.55 |
| Bet365 | 1.30 | 5.00 | 6.25 |
| Betano | 1.45 | 4.00 | 6.60 |
| Betfair | 1.36 | 4.20 | 6.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.43 | 3.95 | 6.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.25 | 5.00 | 8.40 |
| Pinnacle | 1.25 | 5.35 | 8.51 |
| Superbet | 1.51 | 4.00 | 5.55 |
| Unibet | 1.46 | 3.85 | 5.25 |
| William Hill | 1.25 | 5.00 | 8.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .