Kairat Almaty
vs
Irtysh
Garuda Lions Prediction: Kairat Almaty
1 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
Kairat Almaty vs Irtysh overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Kairat Almaty vs Irtysh
| Probability | Kairat Almaty | Draw | Irtysh |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46.6% | 28.3% | 25.0% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 46.6% | 28.3% | 25.0% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Kairat Almaty
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.50 vs 1.04.
Best available price on the pick: 1.36, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Kairat Almaty vs Irtysh match preview
Kairat Almaty faces Irtysh in the Kazakhstan Premier League with model probabilities indicating a 47% chance of a Kairat victory, a 28% likelihood of a draw, and a 25% chance for Irtysh. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Kairat, with a probability of 11%. The expected goals for Kairat Almaty stand at 1.50, while Irtysh is projected to score 1.04.
In terms of recent form, Kairat Almaty has recorded two losses followed by two wins, and then another loss, while Irtysh has seen a mix of results with two wins followed by two losses and one win. The last head-to-head match resulted in a victory for Kairat Almaty, who has won once against Irtysh without any draws or losses in their last encounter. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating moderate certainty in the model's predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Kairat Almaty and Irtysh expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.54
Kairat Almaty and Irtysh attack and defence ratings
Kairat Almaty
Irtysh
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 23 fixtures
Before and after this match
Kairat Almaty vs Irtysh markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kairat Almaty | 46.6% | 2.15 | — | 1.36 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.3% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.5% | 1.94 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.0% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.4% | 1.87 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kairat Almaty | 46.6% |
| Draw | 28.3% | |
| Irtysh | 25.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 53.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.5% |
| No | 48.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 53.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Kairat Almaty win | 24.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.6% | |
| Loss | 53.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.5% |
| 1-0 | 10.6% | |
| 2-1 | 9.2% |
Kairat Almaty vs Irtysh stats
Kairat Almaty and Irtysh recent form
| Kairat Almaty |
LLWWWL |
| Irtysh |
WWLWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Kairat Almaty and Irtysh season so far
Kairat Almaty record
- They have won 17 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 10 matches.
Irtysh record
- They have won 6 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 25 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Kairat Almaty vs Irtysh head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Irtysh | Kairat Almaty | Kazakhstan Premier League | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Kairat Almaty vs Irtysh odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 67.8%, draw 20.2%, away 12.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.34 | 4.84 | 8.90 |
| Betano | 1.36 | 4.50 | 7.60 |
| Dafabet | 1.34 | 4.50 | 7.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.32 | 4.40 | 8.00 |
| Superbet | 1.34 | 4.60 | 7.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .