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Kazakhstan Premier League · Full time ·Matchday 23

Kairat Almaty vs Irtysh

5 – 0 Full time

15′M. Gual
16′Edmilson
26′R. Karimov
31′O. A. FalayeT. Mukhametzhanov
31′N. BaybosynovD. Esimbekov
34′M. Gual
46′M. RikhardB. Sarnavskyi
46′G. MendonsaM. Abish
49′T. Mukhametzhanov
54′A. Tuyakbaev
61′A. MartynovichI. Bekbolat
62′EdmilsonO. Baybek
69′Leonardo KalilA. Nurlan
69′L. MataL. Kurgin
74′M. Gual
79′M. GualM. Birkurmanov
80′L. RamosM. Khalmatov
82′B. Toleuov
84′A. Tuyakbaev

Almaty Central Stadium, AlmatyReferee: S. Nozhenko

Kairat Almaty 66%
Draw 21%
Irtysh 13%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Kairat Almaty vs Irtysh overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Kairat Almaty vs Irtysh

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityKairat AlmatyDrawIrtysh
Model50.2%30.0%19.8%
Market71.2%18.4%10.4%
Final65.9%21.3%12.8%
Edge-5.2%+2.9%+2.4%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Kairat Almaty

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.40 vs 0.78.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Kairat Almaty ↓ / Irtysh → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 13% 8% 1 15% 14% 2 11% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 87%
2+ goals 65%
3+ goals 37%
No goals 13%

Kairat Almaty and Irtysh expected goals

Kairat Almaty 1.40
Irtysh 0.78

Total expected goals: 2.18

Kairat Almaty and Irtysh attack and defence ratings

Kairat Almaty

Attack 0.93 -7%
Defence 0.90 -10%

Irtysh

Attack 0.76 -24%
Defence 1.02 +2%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Kairat Almaty vs Irtysh: result vs prediction

Kairat Almaty 5 – 0 Irtysh

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 23 fixtures

Kazakhstan Premier League

Before and after this match

Kairat Almaty vs Irtysh markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Kairat Almaty 65.9% 1.52 -5.2% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 62.8% 1.59 — —
Both teams to score No 57.8% 1.73 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 87.2% 1.15 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 49.8% 2.01 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Kairat Almaty65.9%
Draw21.3%
Irtysh12.8%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.537.2%
Under 2.562.8%
Both teams to scoreYes42.2%
No57.8%
Double chance1X (home or draw)87.2%
12 (either side)78.7%
X2 (draw or away)34.1%
Handicap -1Kairat Almaty win25.3%
Push (exactly one goal)24.9%
Loss49.8%
Correct score (top 3)1-014.5%
1-113.6%
0-012.5%

Kairat Almaty vs Irtysh stats

Kairat Almaty and Irtysh recent form

newest first
Kairat Almaty DWLLWW
Irtysh LLWWLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Kairat Almaty and Irtysh going into this match

league record before kick-off

Kairat Almaty record

  • They have won 18 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
  • They have kept 13 clean sheets in 27 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 27 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 10 matches.
  • 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Irtysh record

  • They have won 6 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 27 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 11 of 27 matches.
  • 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Kairat Almaty vs Irtysh head-to-head

Last 7 meetings

4Kairat Almaty wins 0Draws 3Irtysh wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-05-02IrtyshKairat AlmatyKazakhstan Premier League0-1
2019-11-03IrtyshKairat AlmatyPremier League5-0
2019-08-04IrtyshKairat AlmatyPremier League0-2
2019-05-19Kairat AlmatyIrtyshPremier League2-1
2018-10-27Kairat AlmatyIrtyshPremier League0-1
2018-07-06Kairat AlmatyIrtyshPremier League4-0
2018-06-27IrtyshKairat AlmatyCup3-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Kairat Almaty vs Irtysh odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 69.2%, draw 19.0%, away 11.8%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.27 5.59 9.90
Bet365 1.33 4.75 7.00
Betano 1.36 4.50 7.60
Dafabet 1.33 4.60 7.20
Marathonbet 1.25 4.90 8.70
Pinnacle 1.29 4.97 7.81
Superbet 1.34 4.60 7.40
William Hill 1.25 4.80 9.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.27 ▼ -0.07
X 4.90 ▲ +0.40
2 8.70 ▲ +1.10

13 snapshots recorded, from .