Riga
vs
Kairat Almaty
Garuda Lions Prediction: Riga
2 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
Riga vs Kairat Almaty overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Riga vs Kairat Almaty
| Probability | Riga | Draw | Kairat Almaty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58.8% | 24.2% | 17.0% |
| Market | 49.1% | 27.1% | 23.9% |
| Final | 51.5% | 26.4% | 22.2% |
| Edge | +9.7% | -2.9% | -6.9% |
Why Riga
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.88 vs 0.93.
- The market prices Riga below the model: +9.7 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.95, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Riga vs Kairat Almaty match preview
Riga enters the match against Kairat Almaty with a strong probability of winning at 59%. Their recent form shows a mixed bag with two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last six matches. The expected goals for Riga stand at 1.88, indicating a solid offensive performance, while Kairat Almaty has a lower expected goals figure of 0.93.
Kairat Almaty, on the other hand, has had a tumultuous recent run, with three wins and three losses in their last six games. The model suggests a most likely scoreline of 2-0 in favor of Riga, which aligns with the 53% probability for over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance for both teams to score. The confidence grade for this match is rated as C, reflecting moderate certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Riga and Kairat Almaty expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.81
Riga and Kairat Almaty attack and defence ratings
Riga
Kairat Almaty
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other League Stage - 1 fixtures
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- HNK Hajduk Split v Ajax — match page
- Panathinaikos vs Borac Banja Luka
- Gent vs Aarhus — team news & stats
- Universitatea Craiova vs Getafe — team news & stats
- CSKA Sofia v Monaco — match page
- KuPS vs Trabzonspor
- Mjallby AIF v Inter Club d'Escaldes — match page
Before and after this match
Riga vs Kairat Almaty markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Riga | 51.5% | 1.94 | +9.7% | 1.95 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.2% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.2% | 1.92 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.8% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 41.2% | 2.43 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Riga | 51.5% |
| Draw | 26.4% | |
| Kairat Almaty | 22.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 46.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.2% |
| No | 47.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 48.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Riga win | 35.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.5% | |
| Loss | 41.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.6% |
| 2-0 | 10.7% | |
| 1-0 | 10.3% |
Riga vs Kairat Almaty stats
Riga and Kairat Almaty recent form
| Riga |
WWDDLW |
| Kairat Almaty |
LLWWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Riga and Kairat Almaty season so far
Riga record
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Riga vs Kairat Almaty head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Riga vs Kairat Almaty odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 49.1%, draw 27.1%, away 23.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.95 | 3.55 | 4.13 |
| Bet365 | 1.85 | 3.50 | 3.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.85 | 3.40 | 3.90 |
| Betano | 1.95 | 3.50 | 3.95 |
| Betfair | 1.91 | 3.50 | 3.80 |
| Dafabet | 1.93 | 3.55 | 4.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.88 | 3.42 | 3.98 |
| Pinnacle | 1.93 | 3.41 | 4.08 |
| SBO | 1.84 | 3.10 | 3.52 |
| William Hill | 1.91 | 3.40 | 3.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .