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UEFA Europa Conference League · Full time ·League Stage - 1

FC Lugano vs FK Crvena Zvezda

3 – 2 Full time

25′A. Ajeti
32′T. Elsnik
33′Vasilije Kostov
53′Renato Steffen
55′Lars Lukas Mai
63′A. AjetiK. Behrens
63′R. SteffenE. Pihlstrom
64′T. HandelM. Cham
67′R. Krunic
73′B. KarimovD. Moncada
75′M. RisticM. Strika
75′V. LucicK. Balov
79′H. DelcroixE. Alioski
79′D. Dos SantosB. D. Castro Espinosa
81′R. KrunicM. Bajo
81′B. DiengM. Arnautovic
82′Stefan Gudelj
84′D. Moncada
88′Mahmudu Bajo
89′A. Grgic
90′Matej Gaštarov

AIL Arena, LuganoReferee: F. Badstubner

FC Lugano 45%
Draw 26%
FK Crvena Zvezda 29%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

18 Shots 20
5 Shots on target 5
41 Possession % 59
5 Corners 3
9 Fouls 11
2 Offsides 0
3 Saves 2
329 Accurate passes 491

FC Lugano vs FK Crvena Zvezda overview

Garuda Lions analysis: FC Lugano vs FK Crvena Zvezda

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityFC LuganoDrawFK Crvena Zvezda
Model57.2%24.1%18.7%
Market41.3%26.3%32.3%
Final45.3%25.8%28.9%
Edge+4.0%-0.6%-3.4%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why FC Lugano

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.91 vs 1.02.
  • The market prices FC Lugano below our published probability: +4.0 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

FC Lugano ↓ / FK Crvena Zvez → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 6% 1 9% 11% 2 10% 10% 3 6% 6% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 94%
2+ goals 80%
3+ goals 56%
No goals 6%

FC Lugano and FK Crvena Zvezda expected goals

FC Lugano 1.91
FK Crvena Zvezda 1.02

Total expected goals: 2.93

FC Lugano and FK Crvena Zvezda attack and defence ratings

FC Lugano

Attack 1.99 +99%
Defence 0.65 -35%

FK Crvena Zvezda

Attack 1.33 +33%
Defence 0.58 -42%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

FC Lugano vs FK Crvena Zvezda: result vs prediction

FC Lugano 3 – 2 FK Crvena Zvezda

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other League Stage - 1 fixtures

UEFA Europa Conference League

Before and after this match

FC Lugano vs FK Crvena Zvezda markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 FC Lugano 45.3% 2.21 +4.0% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 56.2% 1.78 — —
Both teams to score Yes 55.5% 1.80 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 74.2% 1.35 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 42.8% 2.34 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2FC Lugano45.3%
Draw25.8%
FK Crvena Zvezda28.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.556.2%
Under 2.543.8%
Both teams to scoreYes55.5%
No44.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)71.1%
12 (either side)74.2%
X2 (draw or away)54.7%
Handicap -1FC Lugano win34.3%
Push (exactly one goal)22.9%
Loss42.8%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.4%
2-19.9%
2-09.8%

FC Lugano vs FK Crvena Zvezda stats

FC Lugano and FK Crvena Zvezda recent form

newest first
FC Lugano WWWDWW
FK Crvena Zvezda WWWWDW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

FC Lugano and FK Crvena Zvezda going into this match

league record before kick-off

FC Lugano record

  • They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
  • They average 2.7 goals per game on the road against 1.7 at home.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

FC Lugano vs FK Crvena Zvezda head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

FC Lugano vs FK Crvena Zvezda odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 41.3%, draw 26.3%, away 32.3%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.39 3.68 2.90
Bet365 2.20 3.50 3.00
BetVictor 2.20 3.60 2.88
Betano 2.32 3.55 2.95
Betfair 2.25 3.50 2.88
Dafabet 2.30 3.65 3.00
Marathonbet 2.30 3.54 2.79
Pinnacle 2.27 3.78 2.99
SBO 2.15 3.38 2.86
William Hill 2.25 3.50 2.80

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.26 ▼ -0.50
X 3.54 ▲ +0.02
2 2.89 ▲ +0.52

14 snapshots recorded, from .