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UEFA Europa Conference League · ·League Stage - 1

FC Lugano vs FK Crvena Zvezda

Garuda Lions Prediction: FC Lugano

2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability

Bet on FC Lugano

AIL Arena, Lugano

FC Lugano 40%
Draw 26%
FK Crvena Zvezda 35%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Chance FC Lugano wins
40%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
94%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
58%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
2 – 1
10% of simulated outcomes

FC Lugano vs FK Crvena Zvezda overview

Garuda Lions analysis: FC Lugano vs FK Crvena Zvezda

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityFC LuganoDrawFK Crvena Zvezda
Model56.9%23.7%19.4%
Market33.8%26.6%39.6%
Final39.6%25.9%34.5%
Edge+23.1%-2.9%-20.2%

Confidence: Low

Why FC Lugano

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.96 vs 1.08.
  • The market prices FC Lugano below the model: +23.1 percentage points of edge.

Best available price on the pick: 2.88, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.

FC Lugano vs FK Crvena Zvezda match preview

FC Lugano is set to face FK Crvena Zvezda in the UEFA Europa Conference League on October 15, 2026. The model probabilities indicate a strong likelihood of a win for FC Lugano at 57%, while a draw stands at 24% and FK Crvena Zvezda at 19%. The expected goals suggest a competitive match, with FC Lugano projected to score 1.96 goals compared to FK Crvena Zvezda's 1.08.

Recent form shows FC Lugano on a solid run with five consecutive wins, complemented by a draw, while FK Crvena Zvezda has also performed well, winning five of their last six matches with one draw. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of FC Lugano, with over 2.5 goals predicted at 59% and both teams scoring at 58%.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

FC Lugano ↓ / FK Crvena Zvez → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 6% 1 8% 11% 2 9% 10% 3 6% 6% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 94%
2+ goals 82%
3+ goals 59%
No goals 6%

FC Lugano and FK Crvena Zvezda expected goals

FC Lugano 1.96
FK Crvena Zvezda 1.08

Total expected goals: 3.04

FC Lugano and FK Crvena Zvezda attack and defence ratings

FC Lugano

Attack 1.92 +92%
Defence 0.70 -30%

FK Crvena Zvezda

Attack 1.29 +29%
Defence 0.62 -38%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Other League Stage - 1 fixtures

UEFA Europa Conference League

Before and after this match

FC Lugano vs FK Crvena Zvezda markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 FC Lugano 39.6% 2.52 +23.1% 2.88
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 58.6% 1.71 — —
Both teams to score Yes 57.7% 1.73 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 74.1% 1.35 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 43.1% 2.32 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2FC Lugano39.6%
Draw25.9%
FK Crvena Zvezda34.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.558.6%
Under 2.541.4%
Both teams to scoreYes57.7%
No42.3%
Double chance1X (home or draw)65.5%
12 (either side)74.1%
X2 (draw or away)60.4%
Handicap -1FC Lugano win34.4%
Push (exactly one goal)22.5%
Loss43.1%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.1%
2-19.9%
2-09.2%
Compare prices for this pick

FC Lugano vs FK Crvena Zvezda stats

FC Lugano and FK Crvena Zvezda recent form

newest first
FC Lugano WWDWWW
FK Crvena Zvezda WWWDWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

FC Lugano and FK Crvena Zvezda season so far

league record

FC Lugano record

  • They have won 4 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

FC Lugano vs FK Crvena Zvezda head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

FC Lugano vs FK Crvena Zvezda odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 33.8%, draw 26.6%, away 39.6%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.88 3.67 2.40
Bet365 2.70 3.25 2.40
BetVictor 2.70 3.50 2.30
Betano 2.85 3.50 2.42
Betfair 2.80 3.60 2.25
Dafabet 2.75 3.60 2.44
Marathonbet 2.78 3.54 2.31
Pinnacle 2.82 3.68 2.33
SBO 2.58 3.18 2.23
William Hill 2.40 3.40 2.50
Find the best place to bet

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.76 —
X 3.52 —
2 2.37 —

2 snapshots recorded, from .

Prediction snapshot 1 FC Lugano Predicted score 2 – 1 Low Bet Now
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