Pully Football
vs
FC Lugano
Garuda Lions Prediction: FC Lugano
0 – 3 Predicted score · 13% model probability
Pully Football vs FC Lugano overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Pully Football vs FC Lugano
| Probability | Pully Football | Draw | FC Lugano |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 1.7% | 6.1% | 92.2% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 1.7% | 6.1% | 92.2% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why FC Lugano
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.76 vs 0.49.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Pully Football vs FC Lugano match preview
Pully Football faces a challenging match against FC Lugano in the Schweizer Cup, with model probabilities indicating a significant advantage for the visitors. Pully Football has a mere 2% chance of winning, while FC Lugano boasts a robust 92% probability. The expected goals suggest a stark contrast in attacking capabilities, with Pully Football projected to score 0.49 goals compared to FC Lugano's 3.76.
Recent form highlights Pully Football's latest victory, but FC Lugano arrives with a strong run of six consecutive matches without a loss, including four wins. The most likely scoreline is 0-3, occurring with a 13% probability, and there is an 80% chance of over 2.5 goals in the match. However, both teams to score stands at 38%, indicating a potential one-sided contest.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Pully Football and FC Lugano expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.25
Pully Football and FC Lugano attack and defence ratings
Pully Football
FC Lugano
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Round of 32 fixtures
Before and after this match
Pully Football vs FC Lugano markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Lugano | 92.2% | 1.08 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 79.6% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 61.7% | 1.62 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 98.3% | 1.02 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | FC Lugano win | 80.3% | 1.24 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Pully Football | 1.7% |
| Draw | 6.1% | |
| FC Lugano | 92.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 79.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 20.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 38.3% |
| No | 61.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 7.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 93.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 98.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Lugano win | 80.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 11.9% | |
| Loss | 7.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-3 | 12.6% |
| 0-4 | 11.9% | |
| 0-2 | 10.1% |
Pully Football vs FC Lugano stats
Pully Football and FC Lugano recent form
| Pully Football |
W |
| FC Lugano |
WWDWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 1 completed matches.