Getafe
vs
FC Lugano
Garuda Lions Prediction: FC Lugano
0 β 2 Predicted score Β· 11% model probability
Getafe vs FC Lugano overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Getafe vs FC Lugano
| Probability | Getafe | Draw | FC Lugano |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 13.9% | 20.9% | 65.2% |
| Market | β | β | β |
| Final | 13.9% | 20.9% | 65.2% |
| Edge | β | β | β |
Why FC Lugano
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.20 vs 0.93.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Getafe vs FC Lugano match preview
Getafe faces FC Lugano in the UEFA Europa Conference League with a challenging outlook. Our model gives Getafe a 14% chance of winning, while FC Lugano holds a significant 65% probability of victory. The most likely scoreline predicted is 0-2, occurring at an 11% frequency. Getafe's recent form shows a mixed bag with one win in their last six matches, while FC Lugano comes in strong, having won their last six games.
The expected goals for Getafe stand at 0.93, contrasting sharply with FC Lugano's 2.20. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals in the match is estimated at 61%, and both teams scoring is projected at 55%. With Getafe's recent struggles and Lugano's impressive run, the match could lean heavily in favor of the visitors.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Getafe and FC Lugano expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.13
Getafe and FC Lugano attack and defence ratings
Getafe
FC Lugano
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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Before and after this match
Getafe vs FC Lugano markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Lugano | 65.2% | 1.53 | β | β |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.5% | 1.65 | β | β |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.8% | 1.82 | β | β |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 86.1% | 1.16 | β | β |
| Handicap -1 | FC Lugano win | 42.6% | 2.35 | β | β |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Getafe | 13.9% |
| Draw | 20.9% | |
| FC Lugano | 65.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 39.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.8% |
| No | 45.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 34.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 86.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Lugano win | 42.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.6% | |
| Loss | 34.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-2 | 10.5% |
| 1-1 | 9.9% | |
| 1-2 | 9.8% |
Getafe vs FC Lugano stats
Getafe and FC Lugano recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Getafe and FC Lugano season so far
FC Lugano record
- They have won 4 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.