FC Thun
vs
FC Lugano
Garuda Lions Prediction: FC Lugano
1 β 3 Predicted score Β· 8% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.48 vs 1.09.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence β both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
FC Thun vs FC Lugano overview
Garuda Lions analysis: FC Thun vs FC Lugano
| Probability | FC Thun | Draw | FC Lugano |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 7.4% | 11.5% | 81.1% |
| Market | 26.8% | 23.4% | 49.8% |
| Final | 22.0% | 20.4% | 57.6% |
| Edge | -4.9% | -3.0% | +7.8% |
Why FC Lugano
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.48 vs 1.09.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices FC Lugano below our published probability: +7.8 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.92, recorded β the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +10.6% per unit staked (our 57.6% Γ 1.92 β 1).
FC Thun vs FC Lugano match preview
FC Thun faces FC Lugano in the upcoming Swiss Super League match, where the model indicates a significant advantage for the visitors. FC Thun has struggled recently, recording five losses in their last six matches, while FC Lugano is in excellent form with five consecutive wins and one draw. The model assigns probabilities of 6% for a Thun win, 11% for a draw, and a strong 83% for a Lugano victory.
The expected goals suggest a stark contrast, with FC Thun projected at 1.05 and FC Lugano at 3.56. The most likely scoreline is 1-3, occurring with an 8% probability. Additionally, there is an 84% likelihood of over 2.5 goals, and a 63% chance that both teams will score in the match. The head-to-head record favors Lugano, who has won three of the last four encounters.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
FC Thun and FC Lugano expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.57
FC Thun and FC Lugano attack and defence ratings
FC Thun
FC Lugano
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
FC Thun vs FC Lugano markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Lugano | 57.6% | 1.74 | +7.8% | 1.92 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 83.4% | 1.20 | β | β |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.9% | 1.54 | β | β |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 79.6% | 1.26 | β | β |
| Handicap -1 | FC Lugano win | 65.0% | 1.54 | β | β |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Thun | 22.0% |
| Draw | 20.4% | |
| FC Lugano | 57.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 83.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 16.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.9% |
| No | 35.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 42.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 78.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Lugano win | 65.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16.1% | |
| Loss | 18.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-3 | 7.9% |
| 0-3 | 7.3% | |
| 1-4 | 6.9% |
FC Thun vs FC Lugano stats
FC Thun and FC Lugano recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
FC Thun and FC Lugano season so far
FC Thun record
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.6 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
FC Lugano record
- They have won 8 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 3.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
FC Thun vs FC Lugano head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | FC Thun | FC Lugano | Switzerland Super League | 0-1 |
| 2026-04-04 | FC Lugano | FC Thun | Switzerland Super League | 1-0 |
| 2025-11-22 | FC Thun | FC Lugano | Switzerland Super League | 0-1 |
| 2025-07-27 | FC Lugano | FC Thun | Switzerland Super League | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
FC Thun vs FC Lugano odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 26.9%, draw 23.6%, away 49.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.41 | 4.05 | 1.89 |
| Bet365 | 3.60 | 3.80 | 1.91 |
| BetVictor | 3.30 | 3.90 | 1.87 |
| Betano | 3.55 | 3.80 | 1.91 |
| Betfair | 3.50 | 4.20 | 1.85 |
| Dafabet | 3.55 | 4.00 | 1.92 |
| Marathonbet | 3.42 | 4.05 | 1.87 |
| Pinnacle | 3.49 | 4.24 | 1.88 |
| SBO | 3.02 | 3.50 | 1.88 |
| William Hill | 3.30 | 3.90 | 1.85 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .