Garuda Lions
Today
UEFA Europa Conference League · Full time ·League Stage - 2

FC Thun vs HNK Hajduk Split

0 – 1 Full time

17′D. de Almeida
47′Alberto del Moral
57′Justin Roth
65′Dario Marešić
70′N. MaierN. Zoukit
70′F. DursunN. Christoffersson
71′M. SoticekD. Melnjak
73′Nils Reichmuth
78′J. RothD. Derbaci
78′B. LabeauR. Braschi
78′A. del MoralL. Dendoncker
78′M. SegoM. Livaja
83′N. ReichmuthS. Lengen
85′K. FayadA. Van Hoorenbeeck
85′A. SanyangC. Martin

Stockhorn Arena, ThunReferee: J. Gillett

FC Thun 30%
Draw 25%
HNK Hajduk Split 45%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

12 Shots 11
4 Shots on target 4
54 Possession % 46
2 Corners 3
23 Fouls 16
3 Offsides 3
3 Saves 4
276 Accurate passes 244

FC Thun vs HNK Hajduk Split overview

Garuda Lions analysis: FC Thun vs HNK Hajduk Split

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityFC ThunDrawHNK Hajduk Split
Model22.5%21.3%56.2%
Market32.5%26.5%41.0%
Final30.0%25.2%44.8%
Edge-2.5%-1.3%+3.8%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why HNK Hajduk Split

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.32 vs 1.42.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices HNK Hajduk Split below our published probability: +3.8 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

FC Thun ↓ / HNK Hajduk Spl → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 5% 6% 5% 5% 1 9% 9% 7% 7% 2 6% 6% 5% 5% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 90%
3+ goals 72%
No goals 3%

FC Thun and HNK Hajduk Split expected goals

FC Thun 1.42
HNK Hajduk Split 2.32

Total expected goals: 3.74

FC Thun and HNK Hajduk Split attack and defence ratings

FC Thun

Attack 1.15 +15%
Defence 1.45 +45%

HNK Hajduk Split

Attack 1.34 +34%
Defence 0.75 -25%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

FC Thun vs HNK Hajduk Split: result vs prediction

FC Thun 0 – 1 HNK Hajduk Split

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other League Stage - 2 fixtures

UEFA Europa Conference League

Before and after this match

FC Thun vs HNK Hajduk Split markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 HNK Hajduk Split 44.8% 2.23 +3.8% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 72.1% 1.39 — —
Both teams to score Yes 69.4% 1.44 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 74.8% 1.34 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 43.2% 2.32 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2FC Thun30.0%
Draw25.2%
HNK Hajduk Split44.8%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.572.1%
Under 2.527.9%
Both teams to scoreYes69.4%
No30.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)55.2%
12 (either side)74.8%
X2 (draw or away)70.0%
Handicap -1HNK Hajduk Split win36.4%
Push (exactly one goal)20.4%
Loss43.2%
Correct score (top 3)1-29.1%
1-18.7%
1-37.0%

FC Thun vs HNK Hajduk Split stats

FC Thun and HNK Hajduk Split recent form

newest first
FC Thun DLLWLL
HNK Hajduk Split WWWLWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

FC Thun and HNK Hajduk Split going into this match

league record before kick-off

HNK Hajduk Split record

  • They have won 4 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 3.2 goals per match.

FC Thun vs HNK Hajduk Split head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

FC Thun vs HNK Hajduk Split odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 32.5%, draw 26.5%, away 41.0%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.94 3.61 2.39
Bet365 3.00 3.40 2.25
BetVictor 2.88 3.60 2.25
Betano 2.92 3.50 2.37
Betfair 2.80 3.70 2.25
Dafabet 2.90 3.65 2.36
Marathonbet 2.83 3.48 2.30
Pinnacle 2.98 3.74 2.29
SBO 2.59 3.26 2.19
William Hill 2.80 3.40 2.30

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.89 ▲ +0.21
X 3.55 ▲ +0.13
2 2.29 ▼ -0.18

8 snapshots recorded, from .