FC Thun
vs
HNK Hajduk Split
Garuda Lions Prediction: HNK Hajduk Split
1 – 2 Predicted score · 7% model probability
FC Thun vs HNK Hajduk Split overview
Garuda Lions analysis: FC Thun vs HNK Hajduk Split
| Probability | FC Thun | Draw | HNK Hajduk Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32.0% | 20.9% | 47.1% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 32.0% | 20.9% | 47.1% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why HNK Hajduk Split
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.34 vs 1.93.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
FC Thun vs HNK Hajduk Split match preview
FC Thun faces HNK Hajduk Split in the UEFA Europa Conference League on October 22, 2026. According to our model, the probabilities for the match indicate a 32% chance of a win for FC Thun, a 21% chance of a draw, and a 47% chance for HNK Hajduk Split. The expected goals are 1.93 for FC Thun and 2.34 for HNK Hajduk Split, with the most likely scoreline predicted to be 1-2.
In terms of recent form, FC Thun has recorded a mixed performance with a record of W-L-L-L-D-W, while HNK Hajduk Split has been more consistent, showing L-W-W-L-W-W in their last matches. Our model suggests an 80% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 78% chance that both teams will score. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
FC Thun and HNK Hajduk Split expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.27
FC Thun and HNK Hajduk Split attack and defence ratings
FC Thun
HNK Hajduk Split
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other League Stage - 2 fixtures
Before and after this match
FC Thun vs HNK Hajduk Split markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | HNK Hajduk Split | 47.1% | 2.12 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 79.9% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 77.9% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 79.1% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.9% | 1.89 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Thun | 32.0% |
| Draw | 20.9% | |
| HNK Hajduk Split | 47.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 79.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 20.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 77.9% |
| No | 22.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 52.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 68.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | HNK Hajduk Split win | 28.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.2% | |
| Loss | 52.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-2 | 7.4% |
| 2-2 | 7.1% | |
| 1-1 | 6.9% |
FC Thun vs HNK Hajduk Split stats
FC Thun and HNK Hajduk Split recent form
| FC Thun |
WLLLDW |
| HNK Hajduk Split |
LWWLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.