HNK Hajduk Split
vs
NK Varazdin
Garuda Lions Prediction: HNK Hajduk Split
1 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Varazdin overview
Garuda Lions analysis: HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Varazdin
| Probability | HNK Hajduk Split | Draw | NK Varazdin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48.6% | 27.6% | 23.8% |
| Market | 51.5% | 27.3% | 21.2% |
| Final | 50.8% | 27.4% | 21.9% |
| Edge | -2.9% | +0.4% | +2.5% |
Why HNK Hajduk Split
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.57 vs 1.04.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.85, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Varazdin match preview
HNK Hajduk Split enters this match with a 52% probability of winning, while NK Varazdin has a 20% chance of securing victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, with an expected goals tally of 1.48 for Hajduk Split compared to 1.13 for Varazdin. Recent form shows Hajduk Split has won three of their last six matches, while Varazdin has recorded two wins in their last six outings.
In their last five head-to-head encounters, Hajduk Split has achieved one win, with Varazdin winning two and two matches ending in draws. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is at 49%, and both teams to score stands at 54%, indicating a competitive matchup ahead. The confidence grade for this prediction is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
HNK Hajduk Split and NK Varazdin expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.61
HNK Hajduk Split and NK Varazdin attack and defence ratings
HNK Hajduk Split
NK Varazdin
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Varazdin markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | HNK Hajduk Split | 50.8% | 1.97 | -2.9% | 1.85 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 51.6% | 1.94 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.3% | 1.91 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.1% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.4% | 1.95 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | HNK Hajduk Split | 50.8% |
| Draw | 27.4% | |
| NK Varazdin | 21.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 51.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.3% |
| No | 47.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 49.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | HNK Hajduk Split win | 25.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.8% | |
| Loss | 51.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.2% |
| 1-0 | 10.4% | |
| 2-1 | 9.4% |
HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Varazdin stats
HNK Hajduk Split and NK Varazdin recent form
| HNK Hajduk Split |
WWLWWW |
| NK Varazdin |
WDDDWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
HNK Hajduk Split and NK Varazdin season so far
HNK Hajduk Split record
- They have won 6 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
NK Varazdin record
- They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Varazdin head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 | NK Varazdin | HNK Hajduk Split | HNL | 2-1 |
| 2026-05-03 | HNK Hajduk Split | NK Varazdin | HNL | 3-1 |
| 2026-02-28 | NK Varazdin | HNK Hajduk Split | HNL | 1-1 |
| 2025-11-29 | HNK Hajduk Split | NK Varazdin | HNL | 1-1 |
| 2025-09-13 | NK Varazdin | HNK Hajduk Split | HNL | 2-0 |
| 2025-04-18 | NK Varazdin | HNK Hajduk Split | HNL | 1-1 |
| 2025-02-08 | HNK Hajduk Split | NK Varazdin | HNL | 1-0 |
| 2024-11-03 | NK Varazdin | HNK Hajduk Split | HNL | 1-0 |
| 2024-08-18 | HNK Hajduk Split | NK Varazdin | HNL | 2-1 |
| 2024-05-05 | HNK Hajduk Split | NK Varazdin | HNL | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Varazdin odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 51.7%, draw 26.2%, away 22.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.82 | 3.20 | 4.61 |
| Bet365 | 1.75 | 3.50 | 4.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.75 | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| Betano | 1.82 | 3.50 | 4.30 |
| Betfair | 1.75 | 3.50 | 4.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.83 | 3.55 | 4.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.80 | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| Pinnacle | 1.85 | 3.07 | 5.18 |
| SBO | 1.64 | 3.31 | 3.87 |
| William Hill | 1.75 | 3.50 | 4.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .