HNL · 2026-10-17T13:00:00Z UTC Full time ·Matchday 10

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Istra 1961

2 – 0 Full time

11′			Fran Karačić
46′			Lovre kulusic
52′			Niko Šepić
61′			Niko ŠepićDominik Celija
61′			Dukan Ahmetihamza jaganjac
69′			Nik Skafar ZuzicSilvio Gorican
69′			Demirel hodzicMatija Kablar
73′			Leon Belcardominik thaqi
73′			Dušan VukovićMirko Marić
73′			Ivan katicMatej Mitrović
77′			jakov gurlicaMarijan Čabraja
88′			Isaac Aguiar Tomichvinko rozic
90′			Feta FetaiErbol Atabaev

Stadion Kranjčevićeva, ZagrebReferee: Antonio Melnjak

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

37%

Draw

26%

Istra 1961

36%

Confidence: Low · blended with market odds

Match stats

14	Shots	14
6	Shots on target	8
45	Possession %	55
5	Corners	10
16	Fouls	9
1	Offsides	2
8	Saves	4
241	Accurate passes	337

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Istra 1961 overview

Garuda Lions analysis: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Istra 1961

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	Draw	Istra 1961
Model	28.0%	27.6%	44.4%
Market	40.2%	26.0%	33.7%
Final	37.2%	26.4%	36.4%
Edge	-12.2%	+1.5%	+10.7%

Confidence: Low

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

92%

2+ goals

77%

3+ goals

51%

No goals

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb and Istra 1961 expected goals

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

1.19

Istra 1961

1.55

Total expected goals: 2.73

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb and Istra 1961 attack and defence ratings

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

Attack

0.78 -22%

Defence

1.16 +16%

Istra 1961

Attack

1.11 +11%

Defence

0.98 -2%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Istra 1961: result vs prediction

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 2 – 0 Istra 1961

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick	✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

HNL

Rudes vs HNK Rijeka — team news & stats · 2026-10-16
NK Osijek vs HNK Gorica — team news & stats · 2026-10-17
HNK Hajduk Split v NK Varazdin — match page · 2026-10-18
NK Slaven Belupo v Dinamo Zagreb — match page · 2026-10-18

Before and after this match

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb, previous: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs NK Varazdin prediction
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb, next: HNK Gorica vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb: odds and pick
Istra 1961, previous: NK Osijek vs Istra 1961: odds and pick
Istra 1961, next: Istra 1961 v HNK Hajduk Split analysis

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Istra 1961 markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	37.2%	2.69	-12.2%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	51.4%	1.95	—	—
Both teams to score	Yes	55.8%	1.79	—	—
Double chance	12 (either side)	73.6%	1.36	—	—
Handicap -1	Loss	72.0%	1.39	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	37.2%
	Draw	26.4%
	Istra 1961	36.4%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	51.4%
	Under 2.5	48.6%
Both teams to score	Yes	55.8%
	No	44.2%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	63.6%
	12 (either side)	73.6%
	X2 (draw or away)	62.8%
Handicap -1	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb win	11.9%
	Push (exactly one goal)	16.1%
	Loss	72.0%
Correct score (top 3)	1-1	13.1%
	1-2	9.2%
	0-1	8.9%

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Istra 1961 stats

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb and Istra 1961 recent form

newest first

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	LLDLLL
Istra 1961	WLWDDL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb and Istra 1961 going into this match

league record before kick-off

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb record

They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Istra 1961 record

They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Istra 1961 head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3NK Lokomotiva Zagreb wins 3Draws 4Istra 1961 wins

Date	Home	Away	Competition	Score
2026-08-01	Istra 1961	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	HNL	2-3
2026-04-11	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	Istra 1961	HNL	2-0
2026-01-30	Istra 1961	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	HNL	1-1
2025-10-25	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	Istra 1961	HNL	1-2
2025-08-09	Istra 1961	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	HNL	2-2
2025-05-03	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	Istra 1961	HNL	0-0
2025-03-04	Istra 1961	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	Cup	3-0
2025-02-28	Istra 1961	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	HNL	3-2
2024-12-01	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	Istra 1961	HNL	1-2
2024-09-14	Istra 1961	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	HNL	0-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Istra 1961 odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 40.2%, draw 26.0%, away 33.7%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
1xBet	2.30	3.58	2.74
Bet365	2.25	3.30	2.70
BetVictor	2.25	3.50	2.70
Betano	2.37	3.50	2.77
Betfair	2.25	3.60	2.70
Dafabet	2.38	3.60	2.85
Marathonbet	2.28	3.58	2.72
Pinnacle	2.36	3.68	2.82
SBO	2.17	3.12	2.56
William Hill	2.30	3.40	2.75

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.29 ▼ -0.01

X 3.54 ▼ -0.06

2 2.73 ▼ -0.01

11 snapshots recorded, from 2026-10-12T08:10:03Z.