Garuda Lions
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HNL · Full time ·Matchday 10

NK Osijek vs HNK Gorica

1 – 1 Full time

Opus Arena, OsijekReferee: Ante Culina

NK Osijek 56%
Draw 25%
HNK Gorica 20%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

NK Osijek vs HNK Gorica overview

Garuda Lions analysis: NK Osijek vs HNK Gorica

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityNK OsijekDrawHNK Gorica
Model55.3%26.6%18.1%
Market55.7%24.0%20.2%
Final55.6%24.7%19.7%
Edge-0.5%+2.6%-2.1%

Confidence: Low

Why NK Osijek

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.67 vs 0.85.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

NK Osijek ↓ / HNK Gorica → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 9% 1 12% 13% 2 11% 10% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 91%
2+ goals 73%
3+ goals 46%
No goals 9%

NK Osijek and HNK Gorica expected goals

NK Osijek 1.67
HNK Gorica 0.85

Total expected goals: 2.52

NK Osijek and HNK Gorica attack and defence ratings

NK Osijek

Attack 1.09 +9%
Defence 1.05 +5%

HNK Gorica

Attack 0.68 -32%
Defence 0.99 -1%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

NK Osijek vs HNK Gorica: result vs prediction

NK Osijek 1 – 1 HNK Gorica

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

HNL

Before and after this match

NK Osijek vs HNK Gorica markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 NK Osijek 55.6% 1.80 -0.5% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 53.9% 1.85 — —
Both teams to score No 52.2% 1.91 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 80.3% 1.25 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 44.5% 2.25 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2NK Osijek55.6%
Draw24.7%
HNK Gorica19.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.546.1%
Under 2.553.9%
Both teams to scoreYes47.8%
No52.2%
Double chance1X (home or draw)80.3%
12 (either side)75.3%
X2 (draw or away)44.4%
Handicap -1NK Osijek win31.1%
Push (exactly one goal)24.3%
Loss44.5%
Correct score (top 3)1-112.6%
1-012.2%
2-011.1%

NK Osijek vs HNK Gorica stats

NK Osijek and HNK Gorica recent form

newest first
NK Osijek LDWLWL
HNK Gorica LWDLDL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

NK Osijek and HNK Gorica going into this match

league record before kick-off

NK Osijek record

  • They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

HNK Gorica record

  • They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
  • 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

NK Osijek vs HNK Gorica head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4NK Osijek wins 3Draws 3HNK Gorica wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-08-01HNK GoricaNK OsijekHNL0-2
2026-05-16HNK GoricaNK OsijekHNL2-0
2026-03-14NK OsijekHNK GoricaHNL0-0
2025-12-13NK OsijekHNK GoricaHNL1-1
2025-09-28HNK GoricaNK OsijekHNL0-1
2025-04-19NK OsijekHNK GoricaHNL0-1
2025-02-08HNK GoricaNK OsijekHNL1-0
2024-11-02NK OsijekHNK GoricaHNL2-0
2024-08-18HNK GoricaNK OsijekHNL2-2
2024-04-28HNK GoricaNK OsijekHNL0-3

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

NK Osijek vs HNK Gorica odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 55.7%, draw 24.2%, away 20.2%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.65 3.96 4.54
Bet365 1.62 3.60 4.33
BetVictor 1.65 3.70 4.50
Betano 1.70 3.80 4.55
Betfair 1.62 3.80 4.60
Dafabet 1.70 4.00 4.70
Marathonbet 1.63 3.96 4.55
Pinnacle 1.67 3.98 4.88
SBO 1.58 3.40 4.14
William Hill 1.67 3.70 4.60

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.65 —
X 3.83 ▼ -0.02
2 4.54 —

13 snapshots recorded, from .