HNK Gorica
vs
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
Garuda Lions Prediction: HNK Gorica
1 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
HNK Gorica vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb overview
Garuda Lions analysis: HNK Gorica vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
| Probability | HNK Gorica | Draw | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 36.5% | 32.6% | 30.9% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 36.5% | 32.6% | 30.9% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
HNK Gorica vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb match preview
HNK Gorica faces NK Lokomotiva Zagreb in an upcoming HNL match, with probabilities suggesting a 37% chance of a Gorica victory, a 33% chance of a draw, and a 31% chance for Lokomotiva Zagreb. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0 in favor of HNK Gorica, occurring with a 12% probability. Expected goals for Gorica stand at 1.11, while Lokomotiva Zagreb is at 1.00, indicating a closely contested match.
Recent form shows HNK Gorica with one win, two draws, and three losses in their last six matches, while NK Lokomotiva Zagreb has one win, one draw, and four losses in the same period. In their last five head-to-head encounters, HNK Gorica has secured two wins, while NK Lokomotiva Zagreb has triumphed three times. The confidence grade for this matchup is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
HNK Gorica and NK Lokomotiva Zagreb expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.10
HNK Gorica and NK Lokomotiva Zagreb attack and defence ratings
HNK Gorica
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
HNK Gorica vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | HNK Gorica | 36.5% | 2.74 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 64.9% | 1.54 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 56.4% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.1% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 63.5% | 1.58 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | HNK Gorica | 36.5% |
| Draw | 32.6% | |
| NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 30.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 35.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 64.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43.6% |
| No | 56.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 67.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 63.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | HNK Gorica win | 15.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.1% | |
| Loss | 63.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.8% |
| 0-0 | 13.6% | |
| 1-0 | 12.2% |
HNK Gorica vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb stats
HNK Gorica and NK Lokomotiva Zagreb recent form
| HNK Gorica |
LWDLDL |
| NK Lokomotiva Zagreb |
WLLDLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
HNK Gorica and NK Lokomotiva Zagreb season so far
HNK Gorica record
- They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb record
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
HNK Gorica vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | HNK Gorica | HNL | 3-1 |
| 2026-04-17 | HNK Gorica | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | HNL | 0-2 |
| 2026-02-06 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | HNK Gorica | HNL | 3-0 |
| 2025-11-03 | HNK Gorica | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | HNL | 4-1 |
| 2025-08-16 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | HNK Gorica | HNL | 1-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.