HNK Hajduk Split
vs
HNK Gorica
Garuda Lions Prediction: HNK Hajduk Split
1 – 0 Predicted score · 17% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.83 vs 0.52.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
HNK Hajduk Split vs HNK Gorica overview
Garuda Lions analysis: HNK Hajduk Split vs HNK Gorica
| Probability | HNK Hajduk Split | Draw | HNK Gorica |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 68.3% | 22.9% | 8.8% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 68.3% | 22.9% | 8.8% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why HNK Hajduk Split
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.83 vs 0.52.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
HNK Hajduk Split vs HNK Gorica match preview
HNK Hajduk Split is favored to win against HNK Gorica with a 68% probability, reflecting their strong recent form, which includes four wins in their last six matches. In contrast, HNK Gorica has struggled, managing only one win in their last six outings, leading to a 9% probability of victory. The expected goals for Hajduk Split stand at 1.83, while Gorica is projected at just 0.51, indicating a significant disparity in offensive capabilities.
The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, occurring with a 17% likelihood. Additionally, there is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored in the match, and both teams to score has a 35% probability. Historically, Hajduk Split has dominated their recent encounters with Gorica, winning four out of the last five matches.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
HNK Hajduk Split and HNK Gorica expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.34
HNK Hajduk Split and HNK Gorica attack and defence ratings
HNK Hajduk Split
HNK Gorica
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
HNK Hajduk Split vs HNK Gorica markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | HNK Hajduk Split | 68.3% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 58.5% | 1.71 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 65.3% | 1.53 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 91.2% | 1.10 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | HNK Hajduk Split win | 42.0% | 2.38 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | HNK Hajduk Split | 68.3% |
| Draw | 22.9% | |
| HNK Gorica | 8.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 58.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 34.7% |
| No | 65.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 91.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 31.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | HNK Hajduk Split win | 42.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26.3% | |
| Loss | 31.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 16.7% |
| 2-0 | 16.0% | |
| 0-0 | 10.5% |
HNK Hajduk Split vs HNK Gorica stats
HNK Hajduk Split and HNK Gorica recent form
| HNK Hajduk Split |
WWWWLW |
| HNK Gorica |
DDLWDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
HNK Hajduk Split and HNK Gorica season so far
HNK Hajduk Split record
- They have won 7 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
HNK Gorica record
- They have won 1 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
HNK Hajduk Split vs HNK Gorica head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | HNK Gorica | HNK Hajduk Split | HNL | 1-2 |
| 2026-04-12 | HNK Hajduk Split | HNK Gorica | HNL | 1-0 |
| 2026-01-31 | HNK Gorica | HNK Hajduk Split | HNL | 1-0 |
| 2025-10-24 | HNK Gorica | HNK Hajduk Split | HNL | 1-3 |
| 2025-08-10 | HNK Hajduk Split | HNK Gorica | HNL | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.