Garuda Lions
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HNL · ·Matchday 13

HNK Gorica vs NK Slaven Belupo

Garuda Lions Prediction: HNK Gorica

1 – 0 Predicted score · 9% model probability

  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — HNK Gorica is the favourite, not a value bet.
Bet on HNK Gorica

Stadion Radnik, Veliky GoricaReferee: Patrik Pavlesic

HNK Gorica 38%
Draw 28%
NK Slaven Belupo 33%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Chance HNK Gorica wins
38%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
90%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
51%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
1 – 0
9% of simulated outcomes

HNK Gorica vs NK Slaven Belupo overview

Garuda Lions analysis: HNK Gorica vs NK Slaven Belupo

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityHNK GoricaDrawNK Slaven Belupo
Model33.3%29.8%36.8%
Market40.2%27.7%32.1%
Final38.5%28.2%33.3%
Edge-1.7%+0.5%+1.2%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Best available price on the pick: 2.37, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.8% per unit staked (our 38.5% × 2.37 − 1).

HNK Gorica vs NK Slaven Belupo match preview

HNK Gorica faces NK Slaven Belupo in an intriguing HNL matchup. HNK Gorica has a 39% probability of winning, while NK Slaven Belupo holds a 34% chance, with a 28% likelihood of a draw. The expected goals for HNK Gorica is 1.19, slightly lower than NK Slaven Belupo's 1.27. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 1-0 in favor of HNK Gorica, with a 9% probability.

Recent form shows HNK Gorica with one win in their last five matches, alongside two draws and two losses. In contrast, NK Slaven Belupo has two wins, two losses, and one draw in their recent games. Historically, in their last five encounters, HNK Gorica has secured one win, while NK Slaven Belupo has achieved three victories and one draw. The confidence grade for this match is C.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

HNK Gorica ↓ / NK Slaven Belu → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 10% 10% 1 9% 14% 8% 2 8% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 90%
2+ goals 72%
3+ goals 45%
No goals 10%

HNK Gorica and NK Slaven Belupo expected goals

HNK Gorica 1.19
NK Slaven Belupo 1.27

Total expected goals: 2.46

HNK Gorica and NK Slaven Belupo attack and defence ratings

HNK Gorica

Attack 0.57 -43%
Defence 1.15 +15%

NK Slaven Belupo

Attack 0.91 -9%
Defence 1.37 +37%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Other Matchday 13 fixtures

HNL

Before and after this match

HNK Gorica vs NK Slaven Belupo markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 HNK Gorica 38.5% 2.60 -1.7% 2.37
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 55.4% 1.81 — —
Both teams to score Yes 51.4% 1.95 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 71.8% 1.39 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 66.7% 1.50 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2HNK Gorica38.5%
Draw28.2%
NK Slaven Belupo33.3%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.544.6%
Under 2.555.4%
Both teams to scoreYes51.4%
No48.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)66.7%
12 (either side)71.8%
X2 (draw or away)61.5%
Handicap -1HNK Gorica win14.5%
Push (exactly one goal)18.8%
Loss66.7%
Correct score (top 3)1-114.2%
0-09.8%
0-19.5%
Compare prices for this pick

HNK Gorica vs NK Slaven Belupo stats

HNK Gorica and NK Slaven Belupo recent form

newest first
HNK Gorica LDDLWD
NK Slaven Belupo LWLWDL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

HNK Gorica and NK Slaven Belupo season so far

league record

HNK Gorica record

  • They have won 1 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 12 matches.
  • 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

NK Slaven Belupo record

  • They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 12 matches.
  • 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

HNK Gorica vs NK Slaven Belupo head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2HNK Gorica wins 1Draws 7NK Slaven Belupo wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-08-22NK Slaven BelupoHNK GoricaHNL2-0
2026-05-10NK Slaven BelupoHNK GoricaHNL1-0
2026-03-07HNK GoricaNK Slaven BelupoHNL2-2
2025-12-05NK Slaven BelupoHNK GoricaHNL2-1
2025-09-21HNK GoricaNK Slaven BelupoHNL2-1
2025-05-18NK Slaven BelupoHNK GoricaHNL4-0
2025-03-14HNK GoricaNK Slaven BelupoHNL0-3
2025-03-05NK Slaven BelupoHNK GoricaCup3-1
2024-12-13NK Slaven BelupoHNK GoricaHNL2-1
2024-09-30HNK GoricaNK Slaven BelupoHNL2-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

HNK Gorica vs NK Slaven Belupo odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 40.2%, draw 27.7%, away 32.1%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.34 3.34 2.84
Bet365 2.25 3.20 2.88
BetVictor 2.25 3.40 2.80
Betano 2.32 3.40 2.90
Betfair 2.20 3.30 2.88
Dafabet 2.37 3.45 2.95
Marathonbet 2.32 3.34 2.81
Pinnacle 2.30 3.44 2.99
SBO 2.20 3.02 2.59
William Hill 2.30 3.20 2.88
Find the best place to bet

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.30 —
X 3.34 ▼ -0.06
2 2.88 ▲ +0.03

12 snapshots recorded, from .

Prediction snapshot 1 HNK Gorica Predicted score 1 – 0 Low Bet Now
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