NK Osijek
vs
HNK Hajduk Split
Garuda Lions Prediction: HNK Hajduk Split
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.60 vs 1.19.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — HNK Hajduk Split is the favourite, not a value bet.
NK Osijek vs HNK Hajduk Split overview
Garuda Lions analysis: NK Osijek vs HNK Hajduk Split
| Probability | NK Osijek | Draw | HNK Hajduk Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27.3% | 27.0% | 45.7% |
| Market | 24.2% | 26.1% | 49.7% |
| Final | 24.9% | 26.3% | 48.7% |
| Edge | +0.8% | +0.2% | -1.0% |
Why HNK Hajduk Split
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.60 vs 1.19.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.89, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.9% per unit staked (our 48.7% × 1.89 − 1).
NK Osijek vs HNK Hajduk Split match preview
NK Osijek faces HNK Hajduk Split in a match where the probabilities suggest a strong advantage for the visitors, with Hajduk Split at 56% to win compared to Osijek's 19%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, reflecting Hajduk's expected goals of 1.86 against Osijek's 1.02. Both teams are projected to score, with a 55% likelihood for each team finding the net.
Recent form indicates contrasting performances, as NK Osijek has recorded one win in their last five matches (L-D-L-D-W-L), while HNK Hajduk Split is on a strong run with six consecutive games without a loss (W-D-W-W-W-W). The head-to-head record also favors Hajduk, who have won four of the last five encounters against Osijek.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
NK Osijek and HNK Hajduk Split expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.80
NK Osijek and HNK Hajduk Split attack and defence ratings
NK Osijek
HNK Hajduk Split
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
NK Osijek vs HNK Hajduk Split markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | HNK Hajduk Split | 48.7% | 2.05 | -1.0% | 1.89 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.0% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.8% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 75.1% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 54.3% | 1.84 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | NK Osijek | 24.9% |
| Draw | 26.3% | |
| HNK Hajduk Split | 48.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 47.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.8% |
| No | 43.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 51.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 75.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | HNK Hajduk Split win | 24.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.5% | |
| Loss | 54.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.8% |
| 1-2 | 9.4% | |
| 0-1 | 8.6% |
NK Osijek vs HNK Hajduk Split stats
NK Osijek and HNK Hajduk Split recent form
| NK Osijek |
WLDLDW |
| HNK Hajduk Split |
LWDWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
NK Osijek and HNK Hajduk Split season so far
NK Osijek record
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
HNK Hajduk Split record
- They have won 7 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
NK Osijek vs HNK Hajduk Split head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | HNK Hajduk Split | NK Osijek | HNL | 4-0 |
| 2026-04-21 | HNK Hajduk Split | NK Osijek | HNL | 0-1 |
| 2026-02-15 | NK Osijek | HNK Hajduk Split | HNL | 0-2 |
| 2025-11-08 | HNK Hajduk Split | NK Osijek | HNL | 2-0 |
| 2025-08-24 | NK Osijek | HNK Hajduk Split | HNL | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
NK Osijek vs HNK Hajduk Split odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 24.2%, draw 26.1%, away 49.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.83 | 3.60 | 1.85 |
| Bet365 | 3.70 | 3.50 | 1.80 |
| BetVictor | 3.70 | 3.50 | 1.83 |
| Betano | 3.90 | 3.55 | 1.88 |
| Betfair | 3.60 | 3.50 | 1.85 |
| Dafabet | 4.00 | 3.70 | 1.89 |
| Marathonbet | 3.82 | 3.60 | 1.83 |
| Pinnacle | 3.89 | 3.62 | 1.88 |
| SBO | 3.28 | 3.11 | 1.84 |
| William Hill | 3.80 | 3.40 | 1.85 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .