Istra 1961
vs
HNK Rijeka
Garuda Lions Prediction: HNK Rijeka
1 – 2 Predicted score · 7% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — HNK Rijeka is the favourite, not a value bet.
Istra 1961 vs HNK Rijeka overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Istra 1961 vs HNK Rijeka
| Probability | Istra 1961 | Draw | HNK Rijeka |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50.0% | 25.2% | 24.8% |
| Market | 25.5% | 25.9% | 48.6% |
| Final | 31.6% | 25.7% | 42.7% |
| Edge | +6.1% | -0.2% | -6.0% |
Best available price on the pick: 1.96, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -16.3% per unit staked (our 42.7% × 1.96 − 1).
Istra 1961 vs HNK Rijeka match preview
Istra 1961 faces HNK Rijeka in a match where the probabilities suggest a competitive encounter, with Istra 1961 at 32%, a draw at 26%, and HNK Rijeka at 43%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2, occurring at a rate of 7%. The expectation for over 2.5 goals stands at 58%, while both teams scoring is projected at 60%.
In terms of recent form, Istra 1961 has recorded a mix of results with three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five matches. HNK Rijeka has had a similar run, with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their latest five games. The expected goals for Istra 1961 are 1.80, compared to HNK Rijeka's 1.22, indicating an intriguing matchup ahead.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Istra 1961 and HNK Rijeka expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.03
Istra 1961 and HNK Rijeka attack and defence ratings
Istra 1961
HNK Rijeka
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Istra 1961 vs HNK Rijeka markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | HNK Rijeka | 42.7% | 2.34 | -6.0% | 1.96 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.3% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.0% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.3% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 75.2% | 1.33 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Istra 1961 | 31.6% |
| Draw | 25.7% | |
| HNK Rijeka | 42.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 41.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.0% |
| No | 40.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 57.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 68.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | HNK Rijeka win | 10.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 14.3% | |
| Loss | 75.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.8% |
| 2-1 | 9.6% | |
| 2-0 | 7.9% |
Istra 1961 vs HNK Rijeka stats
Istra 1961 and HNK Rijeka recent form
| Istra 1961 |
WDLWLW |
| HNK Rijeka |
DLWLWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Istra 1961 and HNK Rijeka season so far
Istra 1961 record
- They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
HNK Rijeka record
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.6 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Istra 1961 vs HNK Rijeka head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | HNK Rijeka | Istra 1961 | HNL | 3-2 |
| 2026-05-17 | Istra 1961 | HNK Rijeka | HNL | 0-0 |
| 2026-03-15 | HNK Rijeka | Istra 1961 | HNL | 0-2 |
| 2026-01-20 | Istra 1961 | HNK Rijeka | HNL | 1-2 |
| 2025-09-27 | HNK Rijeka | Istra 1961 | HNL | 0-0 |
| 2025-04-19 | Istra 1961 | HNK Rijeka | HNL | 2-0 |
| 2025-04-02 | HNK Rijeka | Istra 1961 | Cup | 1-0 |
| 2025-02-09 | HNK Rijeka | Istra 1961 | HNL | 0-1 |
| 2024-11-03 | Istra 1961 | HNK Rijeka | HNL | 0-1 |
| 2024-08-18 | HNK Rijeka | Istra 1961 | HNL | 4-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Istra 1961 vs HNK Rijeka odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 25.5%, draw 25.9%, away 48.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.63 | 3.62 | 1.90 |
| Bet365 | 3.60 | 3.40 | 1.83 |
| BetVictor | 3.60 | 3.50 | 1.87 |
| Betano | 3.70 | 3.50 | 1.95 |
| Betfair | 3.60 | 3.60 | 1.85 |
| Dafabet | 3.80 | 3.65 | 1.96 |
| Marathonbet | 3.62 | 3.62 | 1.88 |
| Pinnacle | 3.69 | 3.67 | 1.93 |
| SBO | 3.26 | 3.05 | 1.87 |
| William Hill | 3.60 | 3.40 | 1.91 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .