NK Varazdin
vs
Dinamo Zagreb
Garuda Lions Prediction: Dinamo Zagreb
0 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Dinamo Zagreb is the favourite, not a value bet.
NK Varazdin vs Dinamo Zagreb overview
Garuda Lions analysis: NK Varazdin vs Dinamo Zagreb
| Probability | NK Varazdin | Draw | Dinamo Zagreb |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40.1% | 29.1% | 30.7% |
| Market | 20.5% | 23.8% | 55.8% |
| Final | 25.4% | 25.1% | 49.5% |
| Edge | +4.9% | +1.3% | -6.3% |
Why Dinamo Zagreb
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.70, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -15.8% per unit staked (our 49.5% × 1.70 − 1).
NK Varazdin vs Dinamo Zagreb match preview
NK Varazdin faces Dinamo Zagreb in an upcoming HNL match, with the probabilities indicating a 25% chance for Varazdin to win, a 25% chance for a draw, and a 50% chance for Dinamo Zagreb to secure victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 0-1, occurring at an 8% probability. The expected goals for NK Varazdin stand at 1.37, while Dinamo Zagreb has an expected goal figure of 1.17.
In terms of recent form, NK Varazdin has recorded two draws and three losses in their last five matches, while Dinamo Zagreb has achieved four wins and one loss in the same period. The head-to-head record shows that NK Varazdin has not won any of the last five encounters, with one draw and four victories for Dinamo Zagreb. The confidence grade for this matchup is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
NK Varazdin and Dinamo Zagreb expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.54
NK Varazdin and Dinamo Zagreb attack and defence ratings
NK Varazdin
Dinamo Zagreb
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
NK Varazdin vs Dinamo Zagreb markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Dinamo Zagreb | 49.5% | 2.02 | -6.3% | 1.70 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.5% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.6% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.9% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 69.3% | 1.44 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | NK Varazdin | 25.4% |
| Draw | 25.1% | |
| Dinamo Zagreb | 49.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 53.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.6% |
| No | 47.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 50.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 74.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Dinamo Zagreb win | 13.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.6% | |
| Loss | 69.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.9% |
| 1-0 | 9.6% | |
| 0-0 | 9.2% |
NK Varazdin vs Dinamo Zagreb stats
NK Varazdin and Dinamo Zagreb recent form
| NK Varazdin |
DLLWDD |
| Dinamo Zagreb |
WLWLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
NK Varazdin and Dinamo Zagreb season so far
NK Varazdin record
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Dinamo Zagreb record
- They have won 7 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
NK Varazdin vs Dinamo Zagreb head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Dinamo Zagreb | NK Varazdin | HNL | 3-1 |
| 2026-04-26 | Dinamo Zagreb | NK Varazdin | HNL | 2-1 |
| 2026-02-22 | NK Varazdin | Dinamo Zagreb | HNL | 0-4 |
| 2025-11-22 | Dinamo Zagreb | NK Varazdin | HNL | 3-1 |
| 2025-08-30 | NK Varazdin | Dinamo Zagreb | HNL | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
NK Varazdin vs Dinamo Zagreb odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 20.5%, draw 23.8%, away 55.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.49 | 3.94 | 1.66 |
| Bet365 | 4.50 | 3.60 | 1.62 |
| BetVictor | 4.60 | 3.80 | 1.62 |
| Betano | 4.50 | 3.85 | 1.70 |
| Betfair | 4.20 | 3.90 | 1.65 |
| Dafabet | 4.60 | 4.10 | 1.70 |
| Marathonbet | 4.50 | 3.94 | 1.64 |
| Pinnacle | 4.64 | 4.08 | 1.65 |
| SBO | 4.14 | 3.46 | 1.57 |
| William Hill | 4.50 | 3.80 | 1.67 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .