HNK Rijeka
vs
NK Varazdin
Garuda Lions Prediction: HNK Rijeka
1 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
HNK Rijeka vs NK Varazdin overview
Garuda Lions analysis: HNK Rijeka vs NK Varazdin
| Probability | HNK Rijeka | Draw | NK Varazdin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39.0% | 29.9% | 31.1% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 39.0% | 29.9% | 31.1% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why HNK Rijeka
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
HNK Rijeka vs NK Varazdin match preview
HNK Rijeka and NK Varazdin are set to clash with both teams showing contrasting recent form. HNK Rijeka has recorded three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five matches, while NK Varazdin has two wins and three draws in the same period. According to our model, HNK Rijeka has a 35% chance of winning, with a slight edge in expected goals at 1.17 compared to NK Varazdin's 1.15.
In their last five encounters, NK Varazdin has dominated with four wins, while HNK Rijeka has only managed one victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0 in favor of HNK Rijeka, which has a probability of 10%. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals stands at 41%, and both teams scoring is estimated at 48%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
HNK Rijeka and NK Varazdin expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.44
HNK Rijeka and NK Varazdin attack and defence ratings
HNK Rijeka
NK Varazdin
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
HNK Rijeka vs NK Varazdin markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | HNK Rijeka | 39.0% | 2.56 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 56.0% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.7% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 70.1% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 61.0% | 1.64 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | HNK Rijeka | 39.0% |
| Draw | 29.9% | |
| NK Varazdin | 31.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 56.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.7% |
| No | 49.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 68.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 61.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | HNK Rijeka win | 18.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.8% | |
| Loss | 61.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.2% |
| 1-0 | 10.1% | |
| 0-0 | 10.0% |
HNK Rijeka vs NK Varazdin stats
HNK Rijeka and NK Varazdin recent form
| HNK Rijeka |
WLWDWD |
| NK Varazdin |
LLWDDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
HNK Rijeka and NK Varazdin season so far
HNK Rijeka record
- They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
NK Varazdin record
- They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
HNK Rijeka vs NK Varazdin head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | NK Varazdin | HNK Rijeka | HNL | 2-0 |
| 2026-04-22 | NK Varazdin | HNK Rijeka | HNL | 1-0 |
| 2026-02-14 | HNK Rijeka | NK Varazdin | HNL | 3-1 |
| 2025-11-09 | NK Varazdin | HNK Rijeka | HNL | 1-0 |
| 2025-08-24 | HNK Rijeka | NK Varazdin | HNL | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.