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UEFA Europa Conference League · Full time ·League Stage - 3

Lincoln Red Imps FC vs HNK Hajduk Split

1 – 0 Full time

29′Christian Rutjens
49′Kike Gómez
58′Marin Šotiček
61′J. EerstelingF. Alvarez
63′Abdoulie Sanyang Bamba
68′A. Van HoorenbeeckD. Maresic
69′M. SegoC. Martin
75′D. de AlmeidaM. Livaja
79′Graeme Torrilla
82′ManuA. Romero Morillo
82′T. GarciaA. Mula
86′K. GomezY. Flalhi Idrissi
86′T. CardozoJoe
86′M. SoticekA. Huram
86′A. SanyangA. Sutalo
89′D. Hadzikadunic
90′Dario Marešić
90′Mathieu Acapandié

Europa Point Stadium, GibraltarReferee: P. Gryckiewicz

Lincoln Red Imps FC 12%
Draw 20%
HNK Hajduk Split 68%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

5 Shots 15
0 Shots on target 1
34 Possession % 66
0 Corners 8
21 Fouls 22
5 Offsides 3
1 Saves 0
137 Accurate passes 361

Lincoln Red Imps FC vs HNK Hajduk Split overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Lincoln Red Imps FC vs HNK Hajduk Split

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityLincoln Red Imps FCDrawHNK Hajduk Split
Model14.6%22.5%62.8%
Market11.1%18.8%70.1%
Final12.0%19.7%68.3%
Edge+0.9%+0.9%-1.8%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why HNK Hajduk Split

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.02 vs 0.88.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Lincoln Red Im ↓ / HNK Hajduk Spl → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 6% 10% 11% 8% 6% 1 11% 10% 7% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 94%
2+ goals 80%
3+ goals 56%
No goals 6%

Lincoln Red Imps FC and HNK Hajduk Split expected goals

Lincoln Red Imps FC 0.88
HNK Hajduk Split 2.02

Total expected goals: 2.91

Lincoln Red Imps FC and HNK Hajduk Split attack and defence ratings

Lincoln Red Imps FC

Attack 0.81 -19%
Defence 1.17 +17%

HNK Hajduk Split

Attack 1.45 +45%
Defence 0.66 -34%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Lincoln Red Imps FC vs HNK Hajduk Split: result vs prediction

Lincoln Red Imps FC 1 – 0 HNK Hajduk Split

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other League Stage - 3 fixtures

UEFA Europa Conference League

Before and after this match

Lincoln Red Imps FC vs HNK Hajduk Split markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 HNK Hajduk Split 68.3% 1.46 -1.8% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 55.5% 1.80 — —
Both teams to score Yes 51.9% 1.93 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 88.0% 1.14 — —
Handicap -1 HNK Hajduk Split win 39.4% 2.54 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Lincoln Red Imps FC12.0%
Draw19.7%
HNK Hajduk Split68.3%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.555.5%
Under 2.544.5%
Both teams to scoreYes51.9%
No48.1%
Double chance1X (home or draw)31.7%
12 (either side)80.3%
X2 (draw or away)88.0%
Handicap -1HNK Hajduk Split win39.4%
Push (exactly one goal)23.4%
Loss37.2%
Correct score (top 3)0-211.2%
1-110.8%
0-110.1%

Lincoln Red Imps FC vs HNK Hajduk Split stats

Lincoln Red Imps FC and HNK Hajduk Split recent form

newest first
Lincoln Red Imps FC LLWLLD
HNK Hajduk Split WDWWWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Lincoln Red Imps FC and HNK Hajduk Split going into this match

league record before kick-off

HNK Hajduk Split record

  • They have won 5 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.8 goals per match.
  • They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).

Lincoln Red Imps FC vs HNK Hajduk Split head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Lincoln Red Imps FC vs HNK Hajduk Split odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 11.1%, draw 18.8%, away 70.1%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 9.40 5.24 1.35
Bet365 8.00 5.00 1.36
BetVictor 8.50 4.80 1.33
Betano 9.25 5.10 1.39
Betfair 8.50 5.00 1.30
Dafabet 8.40 5.20 1.37
Marathonbet 8.80 4.90 1.32
Pinnacle 9.00 5.11 1.36
SBO 7.72 4.54 1.33
William Hill 8.00 4.75 1.33

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 8.50 ▼ -1.50
X 5.00 ▲ +0.10
2 1.34 ▲ +0.01

14 snapshots recorded, from .