NK Osijek
vs
Istra 1961
Garuda Lions Prediction: NK Osijek
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
NK Osijek vs Istra 1961 overview
Garuda Lions analysis: NK Osijek vs Istra 1961
| Probability | NK Osijek | Draw | Istra 1961 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50.9% | 25.9% | 23.2% |
| Market | 46.9% | 26.0% | 27.1% |
| Final | 47.9% | 25.9% | 26.1% |
| Edge | +4.0% | -0.1% | -3.9% |
Why NK Osijek
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.74 vs 1.12.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices NK Osijek below the model: +4.0 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.04, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
NK Osijek vs Istra 1961 match preview
NK Osijek will host Istra 1961 in the HNL on October 10, 2026. The model gives NK Osijek a 51% chance of winning, while Istra 1961 has a 23% probability of securing a victory, and a draw stands at 26%. The expected goals for NK Osijek are 1.74, compared to Istra 1961's 1.12, indicating a stronger offensive performance anticipated from the home side.
In terms of recent form, NK Osijek has recorded a mixed bag of results with two wins and three losses in their last six matches, while Istra 1961 has managed two wins, two draws, and two losses. The head-to-head record favors Istra 1961, who have won three of the last four encounters, but NK Osijek will aim to leverage their home advantage in this matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
NK Osijek and Istra 1961 expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.86
NK Osijek and Istra 1961 attack and defence ratings
NK Osijek
Istra 1961
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
NK Osijek vs Istra 1961 markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | NK Osijek | 47.9% | 2.09 | +4.0% | 2.04 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.5% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.7% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.1% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.3% | 2.03 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | NK Osijek | 47.9% |
| Draw | 25.9% | |
| Istra 1961 | 26.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 45.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.7% |
| No | 43.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 52.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | NK Osijek win | 28.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.3% | |
| Loss | 49.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.3% |
| 2-1 | 9.7% | |
| 1-0 | 8.9% |
NK Osijek vs Istra 1961 stats
NK Osijek and Istra 1961 recent form
| NK Osijek |
DWLWLW |
| Istra 1961 |
LWDDLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
NK Osijek and Istra 1961 season so far
NK Osijek record
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Istra 1961 record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
NK Osijek vs Istra 1961 head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | NK Osijek | Istra 1961 | HNL | 0-1 |
| 2026-03-06 | Istra 1961 | NK Osijek | HNL | 0-1 |
| 2025-12-07 | NK Osijek | Istra 1961 | HNL | 1-5 |
| 2025-09-21 | Istra 1961 | NK Osijek | HNL | 2-1 |
| 2025-05-25 | NK Osijek | Istra 1961 | HNL | 1-1 |
| 2025-03-29 | Istra 1961 | NK Osijek | HNL | 2-1 |
| 2024-12-20 | NK Osijek | Istra 1961 | HNL | 2-2 |
| 2024-10-04 | Istra 1961 | NK Osijek | HNL | 2-1 |
| 2024-04-20 | NK Osijek | Istra 1961 | HNL | 1-2 |
| 2024-02-10 | Istra 1961 | NK Osijek | HNL | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
NK Osijek vs Istra 1961 odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 46.9%, draw 26.0%, away 27.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.98 | 3.64 | 3.34 |
| Bet365 | 1.90 | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| BetVictor | 1.93 | 3.50 | 3.40 |
| Betano | 2.02 | 3.50 | 3.45 |
| Betfair | 1.95 | 3.60 | 3.30 |
| Dafabet | 2.04 | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.96 | 3.64 | 3.32 |
| Pinnacle | 1.97 | 3.64 | 3.50 |
| SBO | 1.95 | 3.09 | 3.01 |
| William Hill | 2.00 | 3.40 | 3.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .