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HNL · Full time ·Matchday 9

NK Osijek vs Istra 1961

1 – 3 Full time

2′Simun Mikolcic
31′Daouda DoumbiaDemirel hodzic
34′Antonio Mauric
45′Emin Hasicivano kolarik
45′Antonio MauricDukan Ahmeti
50′Nik Skafar Zuzic
56′Domagoj BukvicAdmir ljatifi
56′Álejandro CanteroIvan Dolček
62′Luka vrbancicOleksandr Petrusenko
62′Marcel HeisterDavid Kalem
67′Demirel hodzic
69′Simun Mikolcic
71′Gustavo albarracin
76′Armando León
79′Nik Skafar ZuzicSilvio Gorican
85′Gustavo albarracinMatija Kablar
90′Dukan Ahmeti
90′Dukan Ahmeti

Opus Arena, OsijekReferee: Ivan Vukancic

NK Osijek 48%
Draw 26%
Istra 1961 26%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

16 Shots 16
4 Shots on target 6
64 Possession % 36
10 Corners 5
16 Fouls 11
0 Offsides 2
2 Saves 3
457 Accurate passes 235

NK Osijek vs Istra 1961 overview

Garuda Lions analysis: NK Osijek vs Istra 1961

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityNK OsijekDrawIstra 1961
Model50.7%25.9%23.4%
Market46.7%26.0%27.4%
Final47.7%25.9%26.4%
Edge+1.0%-0.0%-1.0%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why NK Osijek

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.74 vs 1.12.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

NK Osijek ↓ / Istra 1961 → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 1 9% 12% 6% 2 9% 10% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 93%
2+ goals 79%
3+ goals 54%
No goals 7%

NK Osijek and Istra 1961 expected goals

NK Osijek 1.74
Istra 1961 1.12

Total expected goals: 2.86

NK Osijek and Istra 1961 attack and defence ratings

NK Osijek

Attack 1.10 +10%
Defence 0.94 -6%

Istra 1961

Attack 0.99 -1%
Defence 1.02 +2%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

NK Osijek vs Istra 1961: result vs prediction

NK Osijek 1 – 3 Istra 1961

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

HNL

Before and after this match

NK Osijek vs Istra 1961 markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 NK Osijek 47.7% 2.10 +1.0% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 54.5% 1.84 — —
Both teams to score Yes 56.7% 1.76 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 74.1% 1.35 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 49.2% 2.03 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2NK Osijek47.7%
Draw25.9%
Istra 196126.4%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.554.5%
Under 2.545.5%
Both teams to scoreYes56.7%
No43.3%
Double chance1X (home or draw)73.6%
12 (either side)74.1%
X2 (draw or away)52.3%
Handicap -1NK Osijek win28.5%
Push (exactly one goal)22.3%
Loss49.2%
Correct score (top 3)1-112.3%
2-19.7%
1-08.8%

NK Osijek vs Istra 1961 stats

NK Osijek and Istra 1961 recent form

newest first
NK Osijek DWLWLW
Istra 1961 LWDDLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

NK Osijek and Istra 1961 going into this match

league record before kick-off

NK Osijek record

  • They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
  • They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

Istra 1961 record

  • They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
  • 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

NK Osijek vs Istra 1961 head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

1NK Osijek wins 2Draws 7Istra 1961 wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-05-10NK OsijekIstra 1961HNL0-1
2026-03-06Istra 1961NK OsijekHNL0-1
2025-12-07NK OsijekIstra 1961HNL1-5
2025-09-21Istra 1961NK OsijekHNL2-1
2025-05-25NK OsijekIstra 1961HNL1-1
2025-03-29Istra 1961NK OsijekHNL2-1
2024-12-20NK OsijekIstra 1961HNL2-2
2024-10-04Istra 1961NK OsijekHNL2-1
2024-04-20NK OsijekIstra 1961HNL1-2
2024-02-10Istra 1961NK OsijekHNL1-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

NK Osijek vs Istra 1961 odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 46.7%, draw 26.0%, away 27.4%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.98 3.64 3.34
Bet365 1.90 3.40 3.60
BetVictor 1.93 3.50 3.40
Betano 2.02 3.50 3.45
Betfair 1.91 3.60 3.30
Dafabet 2.04 3.60 3.60
Marathonbet 1.96 3.64 3.32
Pinnacle 2.00 3.72 3.54
SBO 1.97 3.17 3.07
William Hill 2.00 3.50 3.30

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.98 ▲ +0.01
X 3.55 ▼ -0.09
2 3.37 ▲ +0.06

13 snapshots recorded, from .