Garuda Lions
Today
HNL · Full time ·Matchday 8

Istra 1961 vs HNK Gorica

0 – 1 Full time

45′Daouda Doumbia
72′D. DoumbiaG. Albarracin
72′N. Skafar ZuzicS. Ukich
74′G. CostaI. Cvijanovic
74′B. BogojevicJ. Pranjic
79′Stipe Ukich
81′F. BrodicD. Pavicic
84′R. HrvatinA. Kadusic
84′A. MauricM. Kablar
90′Isaac
90′Luka Vrzić
90′Ivan Cvijanović
90′S. MiettinenM. Nasraoui
90′J. FilipovicS. Peric
90′J. FriganO. Bakic
90′J. Pranjic

Stadion Aldo Drosina, PulaReferee: Dario Bel, Croatia

Istra 1961 53%
Draw 26%
HNK Gorica 21%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

18 Shots 11
11 Shots on target 4
52 Possession % 48
3 Corners 3
7 Fouls 10
1 Offsides 2
3 Saves 10
372 Accurate passes 355

Istra 1961 vs HNK Gorica overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Istra 1961 vs HNK Gorica

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityIstra 1961DrawHNK Gorica
Model59.0%25.6%15.5%
Market51.1%25.5%23.4%
Final53.0%25.5%21.4%
Edge+7.9%+0.0%-7.9%

Confidence: Low

Why Istra 1961

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.74 vs 0.78.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Istra 1961 below the model: +7.9 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Istra 1961 ↓ / HNK Gorica → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 9% 1 13% 12% 2 12% 10% 3 7% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 91%
2+ goals 73%
3+ goals 46%
No goals 9%

Istra 1961 and HNK Gorica expected goals

Istra 1961 1.74
HNK Gorica 0.78

Total expected goals: 2.52

Istra 1961 and HNK Gorica attack and defence ratings

Istra 1961

Attack 1.07 +7%
Defence 1.06 +6%

HNK Gorica

Attack 0.62 -38%
Defence 1.05 +5%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Istra 1961 vs HNK Gorica: result vs prediction

Istra 1961 0 – 1 HNK Gorica

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 8 fixtures

HNL

Before and after this match

Istra 1961 vs HNK Gorica markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Istra 1961 53.0% 1.89 +7.9% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 54.0% 1.85 — —
Both teams to score No 54.3% 1.84 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 78.6% 1.27 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 41.0% 2.44 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Istra 196153.0%
Draw25.5%
HNK Gorica21.4%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.546.0%
Under 2.554.0%
Both teams to scoreYes45.7%
No54.3%
Double chance1X (home or draw)78.6%
12 (either side)74.5%
X2 (draw or away)47.0%
Handicap -1Istra 1961 win34.2%
Push (exactly one goal)24.8%
Loss41.0%
Correct score (top 3)1-012.9%
2-012.2%
1-112.1%

Istra 1961 vs HNK Gorica stats

Istra 1961 and HNK Gorica recent form

newest first
Istra 1961 WDDLWD
HNK Gorica DLDLLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Istra 1961 and HNK Gorica going into this match

league record before kick-off

Istra 1961 record

  • They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
  • They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
  • 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

HNK Gorica record

  • They have won 0 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.

Istra 1961 vs HNK Gorica head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2Istra 1961 wins 2Draws 6HNK Gorica wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-27HNK GoricaIstra 1961HNL1-0
2026-02-21Istra 1961HNK GoricaHNL0-2
2025-11-23HNK GoricaIstra 1961HNL1-0
2025-08-29Istra 1961HNK GoricaHNL1-0
2025-04-12HNK GoricaIstra 1961HNL3-2
2025-01-31Istra 1961HNK GoricaHNL0-0
2024-10-27HNK GoricaIstra 1961HNL1-0
2024-08-10Istra 1961HNK GoricaHNL2-1
2024-05-24HNK GoricaIstra 1961HNL2-0
2024-03-17Istra 1961HNK GoricaHNL0-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Istra 1961 vs HNK Gorica odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 50.7%, draw 25.5%, away 23.8%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.81 3.62 3.99
Bet365 1.80 3.40 3.80
BetVictor 1.80 3.60 3.75
Betano 1.90 3.50 3.85
Betfair 1.80 3.60 3.75
Marathonbet 1.79 3.62 3.98
Pinnacle 1.85 3.64 4.21
SBO 1.86 3.05 3.28
William Hill 1.85 3.30 3.90

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.81 ▼ -0.09
X 3.61 ▲ +0.11
2 3.94 ▲ +0.26

10 snapshots recorded, from .