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HNL · Full time ·Matchday 7

Istra 1961 vs Rudes

3 – 2 Full time

11′Emil Frederiksen
28′Emil Frederiksen
35′Marko Stolnik
45′Toni KolegaLenny Ilecic
45′Noa skokoCheick Tidiane Diabaté
58′hamza jaganjac
58′Emil Frederiksen
65′hamza jaganjacIsaac Aguiar Tomich
66′Nik Skafar Zuzicvinko rozic
67′Xavier Cabrita FernandesVid Seitz
67′Saad El HaddadJurica Poldrugac
70′Lovre Rogić
73′vinko rozicStipe Ukich
77′Marko StolnikVedran Celjak
82′Emil FrederiksenMatija Kablar
82′Rene HrvatinAdvan Kadušić
85′cherno saho
89′Lenny Ilecic

Stadion Aldo Drosina, PulaReferee: Antonio Melnjak, Croatia

Istra 1961 65%
Draw 20%
Rudes 15%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

11 Shots 15
4 Shots on target 5
57 Possession % 43
2 Corners 4
13 Fouls 16
0 Offsides 2
3 Saves 1
362 Accurate passes 247

Istra 1961 vs Rudes overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Istra 1961 vs Rudes

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityIstra 1961DrawRudes
Model68.3%18.6%13.1%
Market63.7%21.1%15.3%
Final64.8%20.4%14.7%
Edge+4.6%-2.5%-2.1%

Confidence: Low

Why Istra 1961

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.50 vs 1.04.
  • The market prices Istra 1961 below the model: +4.6 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Istra 1961 ↓ / Rudes → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 6% 8% 2 9% 9% 5% 3 8% 8% 4+ 9% 9%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 88%
3+ goals 69%
No goals 4%

Istra 1961 and Rudes expected goals

Istra 1961 2.50
Rudes 1.04

Total expected goals: 3.54

Istra 1961 and Rudes attack and defence ratings

Istra 1961

Attack 0.95 -5%
Defence 1.04 +4%

Rudes

Attack 0.84 -16%
Defence 1.70 +70%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Istra 1961 vs Rudes: result vs prediction

Istra 1961 3 – 2 Rudes

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 7 fixtures

HNL

Before and after this match

Istra 1961 vs Rudes markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Istra 1961 64.8% 1.54 +4.6% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 68.7% 1.46 — —
Both teams to score Yes 60.2% 1.66 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 85.3% 1.17 — —
Handicap -1 Istra 1961 win 47.3% 2.12 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Istra 196164.8%
Draw20.4%
Rudes14.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.568.7%
Under 2.531.3%
Both teams to scoreYes60.2%
No39.8%
Double chance1X (home or draw)85.3%
12 (either side)79.6%
X2 (draw or away)35.2%
Handicap -1Istra 1961 win47.3%
Push (exactly one goal)21.0%
Loss31.7%
Correct score (top 3)2-19.4%
2-09.0%
1-18.3%

Istra 1961 vs Rudes stats

Istra 1961 and Rudes recent form

newest first
Istra 1961 DDLWDL
Rudes LLWLLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Istra 1961 and Rudes going into this match

league record before kick-off

Istra 1961 record

  • They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.

Rudes record

  • They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
  • 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Istra 1961 vs Rudes head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

7Istra 1961 wins 1Draws 2Rudes wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2024-10-30RudesIstra 1961Cup1-2
2024-05-03RudesIstra 1961HNL1-3
2024-02-24Istra 1961RudesHNL2-1
2023-11-11RudesIstra 1961HNL0-4
2023-08-27Istra 1961RudesHNL0-0
2022-11-08RudesIstra 1961Cup2-1
2019-05-24Istra 1961RudesHNL2-0
2019-04-04RudesIstra 1961HNL1-0
2018-12-16Istra 1961RudesHNL1-0
2018-10-01RudesIstra 1961HNL0-3

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Istra 1961 vs Rudes odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 63.7%, draw 21.0%, away 15.3%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.43 4.60 6.38
Bet365 1.44 4.20 5.50
BetVictor 1.44 4.33 6.00
Betano 1.50 4.35 5.90
Betfair 1.40 4.40 6.00
Dafabet 1.46 4.40 6.40
Marathonbet 1.42 4.60 6.35
Pinnacle 1.46 4.70 6.36
SBO 1.38 3.88 5.32
William Hill 1.44 4.20 6.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.44 ▲ +0.04
X 4.35 ▼ -0.28
2 6.00 ▼ -0.72

13 snapshots recorded, from .