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HNL · Full time ·Matchday 6

NK Varazdin vs Istra 1961

0 – 0 Full time

24′Dukan Ahmeti
49′Stipe Jurić
57′S. JuricM. Vuk
61′E. FrederiksenIsaac
61′V. RozicN. Skafar Zuzic
73′I. TavaresE. Uchegbu
73′D. AhmetiS. Gorican
76′Rene Hrvatin
79′Frane Maglica
79′Gregor Sikošek
82′G. SikosekE. Durakovic
82′M. MarinaT. Duvnjak
85′R. HrvatinA. Kadusic
85′D. DoumbiaA. Mauric
90′Hamza Jaganjac

Stadion Varteks, VaraždinReferee: Duje Strukan, Croatia

NK Varazdin 54%
Draw 25%
Istra 1961 21%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

21 Shots 9
4 Shots on target 2
58 Possession % 42
8 Corners 4
12 Fouls 14
1 Offsides 0
2 Saves 4
439 Accurate passes 283

NK Varazdin vs Istra 1961 overview

Garuda Lions analysis: NK Varazdin vs Istra 1961

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityNK VarazdinDrawIstra 1961
Model62.1%21.4%16.5%
Market51.9%25.6%22.5%
Final54.4%24.6%21.0%
Edge+10.2%-4.3%-6.0%

Confidence: Low

Why NK Varazdin

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.21 vs 1.08.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices NK Varazdin below the model: +10.2 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

NK Varazdin ↓ / Istra 1961 → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 7% 10% 2 9% 10% 5% 3 7% 7% 4+ 6% 7%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 85%
3+ goals 64%
No goals 5%

NK Varazdin and Istra 1961 expected goals

NK Varazdin 2.21
Istra 1961 1.08

Total expected goals: 3.28

NK Varazdin and Istra 1961 attack and defence ratings

NK Varazdin

Attack 1.25 +25%
Defence 0.85 -15%

Istra 1961

Attack 1.06 +6%
Defence 1.15 +15%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

NK Varazdin vs Istra 1961: result vs prediction

NK Varazdin 0 – 0 Istra 1961

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 6 fixtures

HNL

Before and after this match

NK Varazdin vs Istra 1961 markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 NK Varazdin 54.4% 1.84 +10.2% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 63.7% 1.57 — —
Both teams to score Yes 59.5% 1.68 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 79.0% 1.27 — —
Handicap -1 NK Varazdin win 40.1% 2.49 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2NK Varazdin54.4%
Draw24.6%
Istra 196121.0%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.563.7%
Under 2.536.3%
Both teams to scoreYes59.5%
No40.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)79.0%
12 (either side)75.4%
X2 (draw or away)45.6%
Handicap -1NK Varazdin win40.1%
Push (exactly one goal)22.0%
Loss37.9%
Correct score (top 3)2-19.8%
1-19.8%
2-09.1%

NK Varazdin vs Istra 1961 stats

NK Varazdin and Istra 1961 recent form

newest first
NK Varazdin WLWWWL
Istra 1961 DLWDLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

NK Varazdin and Istra 1961 going into this match

league record before kick-off

NK Varazdin record

  • They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

Istra 1961 record

  • They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.

NK Varazdin vs Istra 1961 head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2NK Varazdin wins 4Draws 4Istra 1961 wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-05-23NK VarazdinIstra 1961HNL2-0
2026-03-20Istra 1961NK VarazdinHNL2-1
2025-12-19NK VarazdinIstra 1961HNL1-3
2025-10-03Istra 1961NK VarazdinHNL1-0
2025-05-11Istra 1961NK VarazdinHNL0-0
2025-03-08NK VarazdinIstra 1961HNL0-0
2024-12-07Istra 1961NK VarazdinHNL0-0
2024-09-20NK VarazdinIstra 1961HNL1-0
2024-05-17Istra 1961NK VarazdinHNL2-0
2024-03-08NK VarazdinIstra 1961HNL2-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

NK Varazdin vs Istra 1961 odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 51.9%, draw 25.6%, away 22.5%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.78 3.55 4.10
1xBet 1.79 3.62 4.19
Bet365 1.75 3.40 4.00
BetVictor 1.75 3.60 4.00
Betano 1.83 3.45 4.25
Betfair 1.75 3.60 3.90
Dafabet 1.83 3.70 4.30
Marathonbet 1.77 3.62 4.20
Pinnacle 1.81 3.66 4.37
SBO 1.68 3.30 3.67
Superbet 1.78 3.65 4.25
Unibet 1.74 3.40 3.80
William Hill 1.80 3.40 4.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.78 ▲ +0.09
X 3.60 ▼ -0.30
2 4.10 ▼ -0.36

9 snapshots recorded, from .