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HNL · Full time ·Matchday 7

HNK Gorica vs NK Varazdin

2 – 2 Full time

16′frigan juraj
45′Kevin CustovicFilip Braut
50′Tom Lacoux
53′Bruno Bogojević
57′luka mamic
57′Patrik MijicFran Brodić
57′Tom LacouxOgnjen Bakic
62′Goncalo Costaivan cvijanovic
63′Ivan CanjugaTomislav Duvnjak
63′Stipe JurićValentin Akrap
63′Iuri TavaresEmmanuel Uchegbu Chimeroucheya
78′Mario Marina
81′Domagoj PavičićLuka Vrzic
85′Aleksa LatkovicIvan Posavec
85′Valentin Akrap
88′luka mamicLuka Skaricic
90′ivan cvijanovic

Gradski stadion Velika Gorica, Velika GoricaReferee: Filip Dragasevic, Croatia

HNK Gorica 25%
Draw 29%
NK Varazdin 46%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

10 Shots 20
4 Shots on target 8
38 Possession % 62
1 Corners 3
12 Fouls 12
1 Offsides 2
6 Saves 2
300 Accurate passes 473

HNK Gorica vs NK Varazdin overview

Garuda Lions analysis: HNK Gorica vs NK Varazdin

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityHNK GoricaDrawNK Varazdin
Model16.2%30.9%52.9%
Market28.3%27.9%43.8%
Final25.3%28.6%46.1%
Edge-12.1%+3.0%+9.1%

Confidence: Low

Why NK Varazdin

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.33 vs 0.62.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
  • The market prices NK Varazdin below the model: +9.1 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

HNK Gorica ↓ / NK Varazdin → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 15% 18% 13% 1 13% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 85%
2+ goals 59%
3+ goals 31%
No goals 15%

HNK Gorica and NK Varazdin expected goals

HNK Gorica 0.62
NK Varazdin 1.33

Total expected goals: 1.95

HNK Gorica and NK Varazdin attack and defence ratings

HNK Gorica

Attack 0.52 -48%
Defence 1.00 +0%

NK Varazdin

Attack 1.12 +12%
Defence 0.77 -23%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

HNK Gorica vs NK Varazdin: result vs prediction

HNK Gorica 2 – 2 NK Varazdin

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 7 fixtures

HNL

Before and after this match

HNK Gorica vs NK Varazdin markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 NK Varazdin 46.1% 2.17 +9.1% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 68.9% 1.45 — —
Both teams to score No 64.8% 1.54 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 74.7% 1.34 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 47.1% 2.12 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2HNK Gorica25.3%
Draw28.6%
NK Varazdin46.1%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.531.1%
Under 2.568.9%
Both teams to scoreYes35.2%
No64.8%
Double chance1X (home or draw)53.9%
12 (either side)71.4%
X2 (draw or away)74.7%
Handicap -1NK Varazdin win26.2%
Push (exactly one goal)26.7%
Loss47.1%
Correct score (top 3)0-117.7%
0-015.4%
1-112.9%

HNK Gorica vs NK Varazdin stats

HNK Gorica and NK Varazdin recent form

newest first
HNK Gorica LDLLLL
NK Varazdin DWLWWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

HNK Gorica and NK Varazdin going into this match

league record before kick-off

HNK Gorica record

  • They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.3 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 6 matches.

NK Varazdin record

  • They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

HNK Gorica vs NK Varazdin head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

1HNK Gorica wins 6Draws 3NK Varazdin wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-03NK VarazdinHNK GoricaHNL1-1
2026-03-04NK VarazdinHNK GoricaCup1-3
2026-01-26HNK GoricaNK VarazdinHNL1-2
2025-10-19HNK GoricaNK VarazdinHNL1-3
2025-08-04NK VarazdinHNK GoricaHNL1-1
2025-04-04NK VarazdinHNK GoricaHNL0-0
2025-01-25HNK GoricaNK VarazdinHNL1-1
2024-11-14NK VarazdinHNK GoricaCup1-1
2024-10-20NK VarazdinHNK GoricaHNL2-1
2024-08-03HNK GoricaNK VarazdinHNL0-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

HNK Gorica vs NK Varazdin odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 28.2%, draw 27.7%, away 44.1%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 3.26 3.38 2.12
Bet365 3.25 3.10 2.05
BetVictor 3.25 3.30 2.05
Betano 3.35 3.25 2.15
Betfair 3.25 3.30 2.00
Dafabet 3.45 3.50 2.03
Marathonbet 3.25 3.38 2.10
Pinnacle 3.37 3.48 2.14
SBO 2.90 3.00 2.03
William Hill 3.25 3.10 2.15

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.25 ▲ +0.12
X 3.30 ▼ -0.08
2 2.10 ▼ -0.06

13 snapshots recorded, from .