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HNL · Full time ·Matchday 5

Istra 1961 vs Dinamo Zagreb

2 – 2 Full time

Stadion Aldo Drosina, PulaReferee: Patrik Pavlešić, Croatia

Istra 1961 18%
Draw 21%
Dinamo Zagreb 61%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Istra 1961 vs Dinamo Zagreb overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Istra 1961 vs Dinamo Zagreb

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityIstra 1961DrawDinamo Zagreb
Model23.1%23.1%53.8%
Market16.1%20.9%63.0%
Final17.9%21.4%60.7%
Edge+7.0%+2.2%-9.2%

Confidence: Low

Why Dinamo Zagreb

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.06 vs 1.31.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Istra 1961 ↓ / Dinamo Zagreb → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 6% 7% 1 10% 10% 7% 5% 2 6% 6% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 86%
3+ goals 65%
No goals 4%

Istra 1961 and Dinamo Zagreb expected goals

Istra 1961 1.31
Dinamo Zagreb 2.06

Total expected goals: 3.37

Istra 1961 and Dinamo Zagreb attack and defence ratings

Istra 1961

Attack 1.03 +3%
Defence 1.09 +9%

Dinamo Zagreb

Attack 1.55 +55%
Defence 0.83 -17%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Istra 1961 vs Dinamo Zagreb: result vs prediction

Istra 1961 2 – 2 Dinamo Zagreb

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

HNL

Before and after this match

Istra 1961 vs Dinamo Zagreb markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Dinamo Zagreb 60.7% 1.65 -9.2% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 65.5% 1.53 — —
Both teams to score Yes 64.7% 1.55 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 82.1% 1.22 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 46.2% 2.17 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Istra 196117.9%
Draw21.4%
Dinamo Zagreb60.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.565.5%
Under 2.534.5%
Both teams to scoreYes64.7%
No35.3%
Double chance1X (home or draw)39.3%
12 (either side)78.6%
X2 (draw or away)82.1%
Handicap -1Dinamo Zagreb win32.7%
Push (exactly one goal)21.1%
Loss46.2%
Correct score (top 3)1-110.2%
1-29.6%
0-27.3%

Istra 1961 vs Dinamo Zagreb stats

Istra 1961 and Dinamo Zagreb recent form

newest first
Istra 1961 LWDLLD
Dinamo Zagreb LWDWWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Istra 1961 and Dinamo Zagreb going into this match

league record before kick-off

Istra 1961 record

  • They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.

Dinamo Zagreb record

  • They have won 4 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

Istra 1961 vs Dinamo Zagreb head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2Istra 1961 wins 1Draws 7Dinamo Zagreb wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-22Istra 1961Dinamo ZagrebHNL0-2
2026-02-14Dinamo ZagrebIstra 1961HNL4-0
2025-11-09Istra 1961Dinamo ZagrebHNL2-1
2025-08-23Dinamo ZagrebIstra 1961HNL3-0
2025-04-05Istra 1961Dinamo ZagrebHNL3-0
2025-01-25Dinamo ZagrebIstra 1961HNL3-1
2024-10-19Istra 1961Dinamo ZagrebHNL2-2
2024-08-02Dinamo ZagrebIstra 1961HNL5-0
2024-04-07Dinamo ZagrebIstra 1961HNL4-1
2024-01-27Istra 1961Dinamo ZagrebHNL0-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Istra 1961 vs Dinamo Zagreb odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 16.1%, draw 20.9%, away 63.0%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 5.70 4.10 1.50
1xBet 5.83 4.60 1.46
Bet365 5.00 3.90 1.53
BetVictor 5.50 4.40 1.45
Betano 5.70 4.25 1.52
Betfair 5.50 4.40 1.40
Dafabet 6.00 4.50 1.51
Marathonbet 5.80 4.60 1.45
Pinnacle 5.76 4.51 1.47
SBO 5.42 4.01 1.36
Superbet 5.60 4.40 1.49
Unibet 5.75 4.35 1.38
William Hill 5.50 4.33 1.44

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 5.70 ▼ -0.80
X 4.40 ▼ -0.35
2 1.46 ▲ +0.10

10 snapshots recorded, from .