HNK Rijeka
vs
Istra 1961
3 – 2 Full time
HNK Rijeka vs Istra 1961 overview
Garuda Lions analysis: HNK Rijeka vs Istra 1961
| Probability | HNK Rijeka | Draw | Istra 1961 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41.9% | 33.2% | 25.0% |
| Market | 63.0% | 21.5% | 15.5% |
| Final | 57.7% | 24.4% | 17.9% |
| Edge | -21.2% | +11.7% | +9.5% |
Why HNK Rijeka
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.15 vs 0.83.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
HNK Rijeka and Istra 1961 expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.97
HNK Rijeka and Istra 1961 attack and defence ratings
HNK Rijeka
Istra 1961
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
HNK Rijeka vs Istra 1961: result vs prediction
HNK Rijeka 3 – 2 Istra 1961
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 4 fixtures
Before and after this match
HNK Rijeka vs Istra 1961 markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | HNK Rijeka | 57.7% | 1.73 | -21.2% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 68.3% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 60.3% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.1% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 58.1% | 1.72 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | HNK Rijeka | 57.7% |
| Draw | 24.4% | |
| Istra 1961 | 17.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 31.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 68.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 39.7% |
| No | 60.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 42.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | HNK Rijeka win | 18.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.5% | |
| Loss | 58.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 15.2% |
| 1-0 | 14.6% | |
| 1-1 | 14.5% |
HNK Rijeka vs Istra 1961 stats
HNK Rijeka and Istra 1961 recent form
| HNK Rijeka |
LLDWWW |
| Istra 1961 |
WDLLDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
HNK Rijeka and Istra 1961 going into this match
Istra 1961 record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
HNK Rijeka vs Istra 1961 head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Istra 1961 | HNK Rijeka | HNL | 0-0 |
| 2026-03-15 | HNK Rijeka | Istra 1961 | HNL | 0-2 |
| 2026-01-20 | Istra 1961 | HNK Rijeka | HNL | 1-2 |
| 2025-09-27 | HNK Rijeka | Istra 1961 | HNL | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
HNK Rijeka vs Istra 1961 odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 63.3%, draw 21.3%, away 15.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.40 | 4.35 | 6.80 |
| 1xBet | 1.48 | 4.33 | 5.99 |
| 888Sport | 1.40 | 4.40 | 7.00 |
| Bet365 | 1.45 | 3.90 | 6.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.45 | 4.10 | 6.00 |
| Betano | 1.50 | 4.15 | 6.20 |
| Betfair | 1.40 | 4.40 | 6.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.49 | 4.50 | 6.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.47 | 4.33 | 5.95 |
| Pinnacle | 1.51 | 4.43 | 6.02 |
| SBO | 1.41 | 3.92 | 5.51 |
| Superbet | 1.48 | 4.35 | 5.90 |
| Unibet | 1.32 | 4.50 | 6.50 |
| William Hill | 1.50 | 4.00 | 5.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
4 snapshots recorded, from .