NK Slaven Belupo vs HNK Gorica Prediction — 22 Aug 2026

NK Slaven Belupo vs HNK Gorica overview

Garuda Lions analysis: NK Slaven Belupo vs HNK Gorica

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	NK Slaven Belupo	Draw	HNK Gorica
Model	27.3%	29.0%	43.7%
Market	34.9%	28.2%	36.9%
Final	33.0%	28.4%	38.6%
Edge	-7.6%	+0.8%	+6.8%

Confidence: Low

Why HNK Gorica

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.43 vs 1.08.
The market prices HNK Gorica below the model: +6.8 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

91%

2+ goals

73%

3+ goals

46%

No goals

9%

NK Slaven Belupo and HNK Gorica expected goals

NK Slaven Belupo

1.08

HNK Gorica

1.43

Total expected goals: 2.51

NK Slaven Belupo and HNK Gorica attack and defence ratings

NK Slaven Belupo

Attack

0.68 -32%

Defence

1.59 +59%

HNK Gorica

Attack

0.73 -27%

Defence

1.06 +6%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

NK Slaven Belupo vs HNK Gorica: result vs prediction

NK Slaven Belupo 2 – 0 HNK Gorica

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✓ Correct
BTTS pick	✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 4 fixtures

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HNK Rijeka v Istra 1961 — match page · 2026-08-23
HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Osijek — team news & stats · 2026-08-23

Before and after this match

NK Slaven Belupo, previous: Istra 1961 vs NK Slaven Belupo prediction
NK Slaven Belupo, next: NK Osijek v NK Slaven Belupo analysis
HNK Gorica, previous: HNK Gorica vs HNK Hajduk Split: odds and pick
HNK Gorica, next: HNK Gorica vs HNK Rijeka prediction

NK Slaven Belupo vs HNK Gorica markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	HNK Gorica	38.6%	2.59	+6.8%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Under 2.5	54.2%	1.84	—	—
Both teams to score	Yes	51.4%	1.94	—	—
Double chance	12 (either side)	71.6%	1.40	—	—
Handicap -1	Loss	56.3%	1.78	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	NK Slaven Belupo	33.0%
	Draw	28.4%
	HNK Gorica	38.6%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	45.8%
	Under 2.5	54.2%
Both teams to score	Yes	51.4%
	No	48.6%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	61.4%
	12 (either side)	71.6%
	X2 (draw or away)	67.0%
Handicap -1	HNK Gorica win	21.7%
	Push (exactly one goal)	21.9%
	Loss	56.3%
Correct score (top 3)	1-1	13.8%
	0-1	10.4%
	0-0	9.4%

NK Slaven Belupo vs HNK Gorica stats

NK Slaven Belupo and HNK Gorica recent form

newest first

NK Slaven Belupo	LLLLLW
HNK Gorica	LLLLWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

NK Slaven Belupo and HNK Gorica going into this match

league record before kick-off

NK Slaven Belupo record

They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.0 on the road.
They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
55% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

HNK Gorica record

They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.3 goals per match.
They have failed to score in 4 of 6 matches.

NK Slaven Belupo vs HNK Gorica head-to-head

Last 4 meetings

2NK Slaven Belupo wins 1Draws 1HNK Gorica wins

Date	Home	Away	Competition	Score
2026-05-10	NK Slaven Belupo	HNK Gorica	HNL	1-0
2026-03-07	HNK Gorica	NK Slaven Belupo	HNL	2-2
2025-12-05	NK Slaven Belupo	HNK Gorica	HNL	2-1
2025-09-21	HNK Gorica	NK Slaven Belupo	HNL	2-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

NK Slaven Belupo vs HNK Gorica odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 34.6%, draw 28.4%, away 37.0%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
10Bet	2.74	3.20	2.44
1xBet	2.64	3.34	2.50
888Sport	2.75	3.10	2.45
Bet365	2.60	3.10	2.45
BetVictor	2.55	3.30	2.45
Betano	2.75	3.15	2.57
Betfair	2.60	3.40	2.38
Dafabet	2.75	3.35	2.55
Marathonbet	2.64	3.34	2.50
Pinnacle	2.69	3.45	2.58
SBO	2.50	3.04	2.37
Superbet	2.72	3.25	2.52
Unibet	2.65	3.00	2.38
William Hill	2.62	3.20	2.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.64 ▼ -0.10

X 3.27 —

2 2.50 ▲ +0.05

2 snapshots recorded, from 2026-08-22T08:43:07Z.