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HNL · Full time ·Matchday 6

NK Slaven Belupo vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

2 – 1 Full time

7′Adetunji Rasaq Adeshina
7′Ilija Nestorovski
14′Morina Dardan
46′D. MorinaJ. Vasilj
46′M. MaricM. Antunovic
48′D. Kovacic
53′I. Nestorovski
66′I. KaticP. Smiljanic
68′M. VesovicD. Thaqi
70′Fran Karačić
81′M. SuboticN. Djurkovic
82′M. DabroD. Bosak
87′N. Djurkovic
90′Tomislav Božić
90′Ljuban Crepulja
90′Marijan Čabraja
90′J. MitrovicL. Crepulja

Gradski stadion Ivan Kušek Apaš, KoprivnicaReferee: Dario Bel, Croatia

NK Slaven Belupo 33%
Draw 27%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 40%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

17 Shots 12
5 Shots on target 3
44 Possession % 56
5 Corners 5
14 Fouls 18
2 Saves 3
251 Accurate passes 357

NK Slaven Belupo vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb overview

Garuda Lions analysis: NK Slaven Belupo vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityNK Slaven BelupoDrawNK Lokomotiva Zagreb
Model21.8%26.8%51.4%
Market37.4%26.5%36.1%
Final33.5%26.6%39.9%
Edge-15.6%+0.3%+15.3%

Confidence: Low

Why NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.67 vs 1.00.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices NK Lokomotiva Zagreb below the model: +15.3 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

NK Slaven Belu ↓ / NK Lokomotiva → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 10% 10% 1 13% 10% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 92%
2+ goals 76%
3+ goals 50%
No goals 8%

NK Slaven Belupo and NK Lokomotiva Zagreb expected goals

NK Slaven Belupo 1.00
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1.67

Total expected goals: 2.66

NK Slaven Belupo and NK Lokomotiva Zagreb attack and defence ratings

NK Slaven Belupo

Attack 0.67 -33%
Defence 1.46 +46%

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

Attack 0.96 -4%
Defence 0.98 -2%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

NK Slaven Belupo vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb: result vs prediction

NK Slaven Belupo 2 – 1 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 6 fixtures

HNL

Before and after this match

NK Slaven Belupo vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 39.9% 2.51 +15.3% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 50.4% 1.98 — —
Both teams to score Yes 52.4% 1.91 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 73.4% 1.36 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 48.1% 2.08 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2NK Slaven Belupo33.5%
Draw26.6%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb39.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.549.6%
Under 2.550.4%
Both teams to scoreYes52.4%
No47.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)60.1%
12 (either side)73.4%
X2 (draw or away)66.5%
Handicap -1NK Lokomotiva Zagreb win28.7%
Push (exactly one goal)23.2%
Loss48.1%
Correct score (top 3)1-112.8%
0-110.4%
1-29.6%

NK Slaven Belupo vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb stats

NK Slaven Belupo and NK Lokomotiva Zagreb recent form

newest first
NK Slaven Belupo LWLLLL
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb WLLWWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

NK Slaven Belupo and NK Lokomotiva Zagreb going into this match

league record before kick-off

NK Slaven Belupo record

  • They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.0 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
  • 55% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb record

  • They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

NK Slaven Belupo vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4NK Slaven Belupo wins 3Draws 3NK Lokomotiva Zagreb wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-21NK Lokomotiva ZagrebNK Slaven BelupoHNL2-1
2026-03-10NK Slaven BelupoNK Lokomotiva ZagrebCup1-1
2026-02-13NK Slaven BelupoNK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL2-0
2026-01-16NK Slaven BelupoNK Lokomotiva ZagrebFriendlies Clubs2-4
2025-11-08NK Lokomotiva ZagrebNK Slaven BelupoHNL1-1
2025-08-23NK Slaven BelupoNK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL1-2
2025-04-18NK Lokomotiva ZagrebNK Slaven BelupoHNL0-2
2025-02-09NK Slaven BelupoNK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL2-1
2024-11-02NK Lokomotiva ZagrebNK Slaven BelupoHNL0-1
2024-08-17NK Slaven BelupoNK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL2-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

NK Slaven Belupo vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 37.1%, draw 27.0%, away 35.9%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.52 3.40 2.52
1xBet 2.47 3.54 2.55
Bet365 2.45 3.20 2.55
BetVictor 2.45 3.40 2.50
Betano 2.55 3.40 2.62
Betfair 2.40 3.50 2.50
Dafabet 2.55 3.50 2.65
Marathonbet 2.47 3.54 2.55
Pinnacle 2.54 3.62 2.63
SBO 2.17 3.09 2.58
Superbet 2.52 3.40 2.62
Unibet 2.20 3.35 2.65
William Hill 2.45 3.40 2.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.46 ▲ +0.20
X 3.47 ▲ +0.09
2 2.55 ▼ -0.10

12 snapshots recorded, from .