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HNL · Full time ·Matchday 9

NK Slaven Belupo vs HNK Rijeka

4 – 1 Full time

7′Tiago Dantas
21′Tomislav BožićDominik Kovačić
35′Jon Mersinaj
43′Itsuki Urata
52′lovro banovec
62′Alfonso BarcoToni Fruk
62′Niko JankovićJakov Puljić
68′Ilija Nestorovski
74′Ilija Nestorovski
80′Tiago DantasAmer Gojak
80′D. Adu-AdjeiAnte Matej Juric
85′Justas LasickasNoel Bodetic
89′Ilija NestorovskiVito Papac
89′lovro banovecLeon Bošnjak
90′Marko DabroLovre loncar
90′Josip MitrovićL. Zahora

Gradski Stadion, KoprivnicaReferee: Ante Terzic

NK Slaven Belupo 19%
Draw 24%
HNK Rijeka 58%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

13 Shots 16
6 Shots on target 5
41 Possession % 59
3 Corners 7
12 Fouls 11
1 Offsides 1
4 Saves 2
253 Accurate passes 400

NK Slaven Belupo vs HNK Rijeka overview

Garuda Lions analysis: NK Slaven Belupo vs HNK Rijeka

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityNK Slaven BelupoDrawHNK Rijeka
Model20.5%26.0%53.5%
Market18.0%23.1%58.9%
Final18.6%23.8%57.6%
Edge+0.6%+0.7%-1.4%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why HNK Rijeka

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.74 vs 0.99.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

NK Slaven Belu ↓ / HNK Rijeka → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 10% 10% 1 12% 10% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 92%
2+ goals 77%
3+ goals 51%
No goals 8%

NK Slaven Belupo and HNK Rijeka expected goals

NK Slaven Belupo 0.99
HNK Rijeka 1.74

Total expected goals: 2.73

NK Slaven Belupo and HNK Rijeka attack and defence ratings

NK Slaven Belupo

Attack 0.79 -21%
Defence 1.32 +32%

HNK Rijeka

Attack 1.09 +9%
Defence 0.82 -18%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

NK Slaven Belupo vs HNK Rijeka: result vs prediction

NK Slaven Belupo 4 – 1 HNK Rijeka

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

HNL

Before and after this match

NK Slaven Belupo vs HNK Rijeka markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 HNK Rijeka 57.6% 1.74 -1.4% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 51.3% 1.95 — —
Both teams to score Yes 53.0% 1.89 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 81.4% 1.23 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 46.3% 2.16 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2NK Slaven Belupo18.6%
Draw23.8%
HNK Rijeka57.6%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.551.3%
Under 2.548.7%
Both teams to scoreYes53.0%
No47.0%
Double chance1X (home or draw)42.4%
12 (either side)76.2%
X2 (draw or away)81.4%
Handicap -1HNK Rijeka win30.5%
Push (exactly one goal)23.2%
Loss46.3%
Correct score (top 3)1-112.4%
0-110.2%
0-29.8%

NK Slaven Belupo vs HNK Rijeka stats

NK Slaven Belupo and HNK Rijeka recent form

newest first
NK Slaven Belupo DLWLWL
HNK Rijeka WDWDLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

NK Slaven Belupo and HNK Rijeka going into this match

league record before kick-off

NK Slaven Belupo record

  • They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
  • They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
  • 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

HNK Rijeka record

  • They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
  • They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.

NK Slaven Belupo vs HNK Rijeka head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

1NK Slaven Belupo wins 3Draws 6HNK Rijeka wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-08HNK RijekaNK Slaven BelupoCup2-0
2026-04-04NK Slaven BelupoHNK RijekaHNL0-2
2026-01-24HNK RijekaNK Slaven BelupoHNL2-2
2025-10-18NK Slaven BelupoHNK RijekaHNL1-1
2025-08-03HNK RijekaNK Slaven BelupoHNL2-0
2025-05-29HNK RijekaNK Slaven BelupoCup1-0
2025-05-25HNK RijekaNK Slaven BelupoHNL2-0
2025-05-14NK Slaven BelupoHNK RijekaCup1-1
2025-03-29NK Slaven BelupoHNK RijekaHNL2-1
2024-12-22HNK RijekaNK Slaven BelupoHNL2-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

NK Slaven Belupo vs HNK Rijeka odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 18.0%, draw 23.1%, away 58.9%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 5.30 4.15 1.54
Bet365 4.75 3.70 1.57
BetVictor 5.25 3.90 1.53
Betano 5.10 4.00 1.60
Betfair 5.00 4.00 1.53
Dafabet 5.20 4.20 1.61
Marathonbet 5.35 4.15 1.52
Pinnacle 5.73 4.11 1.57
SBO 4.39 3.55 1.57
William Hill 5.00 3.80 1.57

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 5.15 ▼ -0.38
X 4.00 ▼ -0.20
2 1.57 ▲ +0.05

13 snapshots recorded, from .