HNL · 2026-10-11T13:00:00Z UTC Full time ·Matchday 9

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs NK Varazdin

0 – 1 Full time

25′			Marko Vešović
40′			luka mamic
45′			matija suboticFeta Fetai
45′			Marko VešovićDušan Vuković
45′			jakov vasiljIvan katic
55′			Ivan PosavecSven Lesjak
67′			Kristijan Čabrajić
71′			Petar BočkajTomislav Duvnjak
71′			Kristijan ČabrajićKayke Rodrigo Souza de Abreu
74′			dominik thaqi
75′			Fran Karačić
78′			Mario MarinaDavid Puclin
80′			dominik thaqiNoel Durkovic
82′			Ivan Canjuga
85′			Dušan Vuković

Stadion Maksimir, ZagrebReferee: Patrik Pavlesic

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

30%

Draw

28%

NK Varazdin

42%

Confidence: Low · blended with market odds

Match stats

12	Shots	15
4	Shots on target	2
58	Possession %	42
6	Corners	5
17	Fouls	11
2	Offsides	0
2	Saves	4
407	Accurate passes	285

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs NK Varazdin overview

Garuda Lions analysis: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs NK Varazdin

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	Draw	NK Varazdin
Model	31.7%	29.2%	39.1%
Market	30.0%	27.1%	42.9%
Final	30.4%	27.6%	41.9%
Edge	+0.4%	+0.5%	-0.9%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why NK Varazdin

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.48 vs 1.07.
Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

91%

2+ goals

73%

3+ goals

47%

No goals

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb and NK Varazdin expected goals

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

1.07

NK Varazdin

1.48

Total expected goals: 2.55

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb and NK Varazdin attack and defence ratings

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

Attack

0.87 -13%

Defence

1.18 +18%

NK Varazdin

Attack

1.03 +3%

Defence

0.79 -21%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs NK Varazdin: result vs prediction

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 0 – 1 NK Varazdin

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✓ Correct
BTTS pick	✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

HNL

HNK Gorica vs Rudes · 2026-10-09
HNK Hajduk Split vs Dinamo Zagreb — team news & stats · 2026-10-10
NK Osijek vs Istra 1961 · 2026-10-10
NK Slaven Belupo vs HNK Rijeka — team news & stats · 2026-10-11

Before and after this match

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb, previous: Dinamo Zagreb v NK Lokomotiva Zagreb analysis
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb, next: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb – Istra 1961, 2026-10-17
NK Varazdin, previous: NK Varazdin – NK Osijek, 2026-09-19
NK Varazdin, next: HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Varazdin: odds and pick

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs NK Varazdin markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	NK Varazdin	41.9%	2.38	-0.9%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Under 2.5	53.2%	1.88	—	—
Both teams to score	Yes	52.9%	1.89	—	—
Double chance	12 (either side)	72.4%	1.38	—	—
Handicap -1	Loss	54.8%	1.82	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	30.4%
	Draw	27.6%
	NK Varazdin	41.9%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	46.8%
	Under 2.5	53.2%
Both teams to score	Yes	52.9%
	No	47.1%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	58.1%
	12 (either side)	72.4%
	X2 (draw or away)	69.6%
Handicap -1	NK Varazdin win	23.0%
	Push (exactly one goal)	22.2%
	Loss	54.8%
Correct score (top 3)	1-1	13.9%
	0-1	9.3%
	0-0	9.1%

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs NK Varazdin stats

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb and NK Varazdin recent form

newest first

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	LDLLLL
NK Varazdin	DDDWLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb and NK Varazdin going into this match

league record before kick-off

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb record

They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

NK Varazdin record

They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
They average 2.3 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs NK Varazdin head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4NK Lokomotiva Zagreb wins 3Draws 3NK Varazdin wins

Date	Home	Away	Competition	Score
2026-06-27	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	NK Varazdin	Friendlies Clubs	2-1
2026-05-09	NK Varazdin	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	HNL	1-1
2026-03-07	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	NK Varazdin	HNL	1-1
2025-12-07	NK Varazdin	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	HNL	4-2
2025-09-20	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	NK Varazdin	HNL	1-0
2025-04-26	NK Varazdin	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	HNL	2-1
2025-02-21	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	NK Varazdin	HNL	1-0
2025-01-18	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	NK Varazdin	Friendlies Clubs	3-2
2024-11-23	NK Varazdin	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	HNL	1-1
2024-09-01	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	NK Varazdin	HNL	0-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs NK Varazdin odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 30.0%, draw 27.1%, away 42.9%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
1xBet	3.22	3.42	2.10
Bet365	2.88	3.25	2.15
BetVictor	3.00	3.30	2.15
Betano	3.05	3.40	2.22
Betfair	3.00	3.40	2.05
Dafabet	3.10	3.50	2.24
Marathonbet	3.20	3.42	2.08
Pinnacle	3.15	3.58	2.21
SBO	2.80	3.08	2.13
William Hill	3.10	3.30	2.15

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.08 ▲ +0.21

X 3.40 —

2 2.15 ▼ -0.11

13 snapshots recorded, from 2026-10-05T08:10:01Z.