NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
vs
NK Varazdin
Garuda Lions Prediction: NK Varazdin
0 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs NK Varazdin overview
Garuda Lions analysis: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs NK Varazdin
| Probability | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | Draw | NK Varazdin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32.1% | 29.2% | 38.8% |
| Market | 28.8% | 27.3% | 43.9% |
| Final | 29.6% | 27.8% | 42.6% |
| Edge | +3.3% | +1.9% | -5.1% |
Why NK Varazdin
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.20, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs NK Varazdin match preview
In the upcoming match between NK Lokomotiva Zagreb and NK Varazdin, the probabilities indicate a competitive encounter, with NK Varazdin slightly favored at 39% to win compared to NK Lokomotiva Zagreb's 32% and a 29% chance of a draw. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, occurring at a 9% probability. Both teams show a moderate likelihood of scoring, with 53% for both teams to score and a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Recent form reveals that NK Lokomotiva Zagreb has struggled, recording two losses and a draw in their last five matches, while NK Varazdin has shown resilience with three draws and two wins in the same period. The expected goals suggest a slight edge for NK Varazdin, with 1.34 compared to NK Lokomotiva Zagreb's 1.20, indicating a potentially tight match.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb and NK Varazdin expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.55
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb and NK Varazdin attack and defence ratings
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
NK Varazdin
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs NK Varazdin markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | NK Varazdin | 42.6% | 2.35 | -5.1% | 2.20 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.2% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.0% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.2% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 61.1% | 1.64 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 29.6% |
| Draw | 27.8% | |
| NK Varazdin | 42.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 53.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.0% |
| No | 47.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 57.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 70.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | NK Varazdin win | 18.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.4% | |
| Loss | 61.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.9% |
| 0-1 | 9.3% | |
| 0-0 | 9.1% |
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs NK Varazdin stats
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb and NK Varazdin recent form
| NK Lokomotiva Zagreb |
LDLWLL |
| NK Varazdin |
DDDWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb and NK Varazdin season so far
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
NK Varazdin record
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game on the road against 1.5 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs NK Varazdin head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | NK Varazdin | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | HNL | 1-1 |
| 2026-03-07 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | NK Varazdin | HNL | 1-1 |
| 2025-12-07 | NK Varazdin | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | HNL | 4-2 |
| 2025-09-20 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | NK Varazdin | HNL | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs NK Varazdin odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 28.8%, draw 27.3%, away 43.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.22 | 3.42 | 2.10 |
| Bet365 | 3.00 | 3.20 | 2.10 |
| BetVictor | 3.10 | 3.30 | 2.10 |
| Betano | 3.20 | 3.35 | 2.18 |
| Betfair | 3.00 | 3.40 | 2.05 |
| Dafabet | 3.25 | 3.50 | 2.20 |
| Marathonbet | 3.20 | 3.42 | 2.08 |
| Pinnacle | 3.25 | 3.52 | 2.10 |
| SBO | 2.77 | 3.04 | 2.08 |
| William Hill | 3.20 | 3.30 | 2.10 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .