HNL · 2026-10-10T13:00:00Z UTC Full time ·Matchday 9

HNK Hajduk Split vs Dinamo Zagreb

2 – 1 Full time

14′			Dion Drena Beljo
21′			Dion Drena Beljo
24′			Scott Mckenna
59′			Abdoulie Sanyang
62′			Ron Raqi
63′			Lukas KacavendaLuka Stojkovic
63′			Mateo LisicaIker Almena Horcajo
63′			Paul TabinasNiko Galesic
70′			Miha ZajcDani Rodríguez
73′			Dalisson De Almeida Leite
73′			Sergi DominguezMoris Valincic
76′			Abdoulie SanyangAndelo Šutalo
89′			marin soticekDario Melnjak
90′			Khalil FayadLeander Dendoncker
90′			Ron RaqiDennis Hadzikadunić
90′			Dalisson De Almeida LeiteCarlos Martín Domínguez
90′			Moris Valincic

Stadion Poljud, SplitReferee: Igor Pajac

HNK Hajduk Split

35%

Draw

25%

Dinamo Zagreb

39%

Confidence: Low · blended with market odds

Match stats

10	Shots	18
3	Shots on target	4
51	Possession %	49
2	Corners	4
13	Fouls	15
1	Offsides	1
2	Saves	2
281	Accurate passes	247

HNK Hajduk Split vs Dinamo Zagreb overview

Garuda Lions analysis: HNK Hajduk Split vs Dinamo Zagreb

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	HNK Hajduk Split	Draw	Dinamo Zagreb
Model	49.3%	22.8%	27.9%
Market	30.6%	26.3%	43.1%
Final	35.3%	25.4%	39.3%
Edge	+4.7%	-0.9%	-3.8%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

97%

2+ goals

88%

3+ goals

70%

No goals

HNK Hajduk Split and Dinamo Zagreb expected goals

HNK Hajduk Split

2.24

Dinamo Zagreb

1.39

Total expected goals: 3.62

HNK Hajduk Split and Dinamo Zagreb attack and defence ratings

HNK Hajduk Split

Attack

1.43 +43%

Defence

0.87 -13%

Dinamo Zagreb

Attack

1.33 +33%

Defence

1.01 +1%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

HNK Hajduk Split vs Dinamo Zagreb: result vs prediction

HNK Hajduk Split 2 – 1 Dinamo Zagreb

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✓ Correct
BTTS pick	✓ Correct

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

HNL

HNK Gorica vs Rudes · 2026-10-09
NK Osijek vs Istra 1961 · 2026-10-10
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb v NK Varazdin — match page · 2026-10-11
NK Slaven Belupo vs HNK Rijeka — team news & stats · 2026-10-11

Before and after this match

HNK Hajduk Split, previous: HNK Rijeka – HNK Hajduk Split, 2026-09-20
HNK Hajduk Split, next: HNK Hajduk Split – Ajax, 2026-10-15
Dinamo Zagreb, previous: Dinamo Zagreb v NK Lokomotiva Zagreb analysis
Dinamo Zagreb, next: Dinamo Zagreb vs Anderlecht: odds and pick

HNK Hajduk Split vs Dinamo Zagreb markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	Dinamo Zagreb	39.3%	2.55	-3.8%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	70.2%	1.42	—	—
Both teams to score	Yes	69.7%	1.43	—	—
Double chance	12 (either side)	74.6%	1.34	—	—
Handicap -1	Loss	77.6%	1.29	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	HNK Hajduk Split	35.3%
	Draw	25.4%
	Dinamo Zagreb	39.3%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	70.2%
	Under 2.5	29.8%
Both teams to score	Yes	69.7%
	No	30.3%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	60.7%
	12 (either side)	74.6%
	X2 (draw or away)	64.7%
Handicap -1	Dinamo Zagreb win	9.9%
	Push (exactly one goal)	12.5%
	Loss	77.6%
Correct score (top 3)	1-1	9.4%
	2-1	8.9%
	2-2	6.9%

HNK Hajduk Split vs Dinamo Zagreb stats

HNK Hajduk Split and Dinamo Zagreb recent form

newest first

HNK Hajduk Split	LWWWWW
Dinamo Zagreb	WDLWDL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

HNK Hajduk Split and Dinamo Zagreb going into this match

league record before kick-off

HNK Hajduk Split record

They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Dinamo Zagreb record

They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

HNK Hajduk Split vs Dinamo Zagreb head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2HNK Hajduk Split wins 2Draws 6Dinamo Zagreb wins

Date	Home	Away	Competition	Score
2026-05-09	Dinamo Zagreb	HNK Hajduk Split	HNL	2-0
2026-03-08	HNK Hajduk Split	Dinamo Zagreb	HNL	1-3
2025-12-06	Dinamo Zagreb	HNK Hajduk Split	HNL	1-1
2025-09-20	HNK Hajduk Split	Dinamo Zagreb	HNL	0-2
2025-05-03	HNK Hajduk Split	Dinamo Zagreb	HNL	1-3
2025-03-02	Dinamo Zagreb	HNK Hajduk Split	HNL	2-2
2024-12-01	HNK Hajduk Split	Dinamo Zagreb	HNL	1-0
2024-09-13	Dinamo Zagreb	HNK Hajduk Split	HNL	0-1
2024-04-03	HNK Hajduk Split	Dinamo Zagreb	Cup	0-1
2024-03-30	HNK Hajduk Split	Dinamo Zagreb	HNL	0-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

HNK Hajduk Split vs Dinamo Zagreb odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 30.6%, draw 26.3%, away 43.1%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
1xBet	3.12	3.54	2.10
Bet365	2.80	3.40	2.15
BetVictor	2.90	3.40	2.15
Betano	3.05	3.50	2.18
Betfair	2.90	3.60	2.05
Dafabet	3.05	3.65	2.24
Marathonbet	3.10	3.54	2.08
Pinnacle	3.06	3.62	2.24
SBO	2.77	3.21	2.09
William Hill	3.00	3.30	2.15

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.02 ▲ +0.20

X 3.52 ▲ +0.02

2 2.15 ▼ -0.09

13 snapshots recorded, from 2026-10-04T08:10:02Z.