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UEFA Europa Conference League · Full time ·League Stage - 2

FC Nordsjaelland vs CSKA Sofia

2 – 2 Full time

8′L. Godoy
20′Dinis Almeida
30′V. NelssonT. Salquist
36′Stephen Acquah
55′I. Adel
59′Justin Janssen
61′N. RojkjaerM. Heyde
62′V. BerthelsenH. Rasmussen
65′P. PanayotovC. Itu
67′I. Adel
76′Justin Janssen
76′Justin Janssen
77′M. EbongT. Ivanov
77′D. AlmeidaI. Solet
81′J. LahteenmakiM. Walker
81′I. AdelM. Brink
84′Teodor Ivanov
84′PastorJ. Eto'o
88′L. Godoy
90′Noah Markmann
90′Andreas Hansen
90′Bruno Jordão
90′Isaac Solet

Right to Dream Park, FarumReferee: R. Jones

FC Nordsjaelland 61%
Draw 21%
CSKA Sofia 18%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

13 Shots 18
6 Shots on target 7
53 Possession % 47
5 Corners 2
13 Fouls 14
5 Offsides 4
5 Saves 4
368 Accurate passes 327

FC Nordsjaelland vs CSKA Sofia overview

Garuda Lions analysis: FC Nordsjaelland vs CSKA Sofia

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityFC NordsjaellandDrawCSKA Sofia
Model47.6%24.7%27.7%
Market66.1%19.8%14.2%
Final61.5%21.0%17.5%
Edge-4.6%+1.2%+3.4%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why FC Nordsjaelland

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.85 vs 1.38.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

FC Nordsjaella ↓ / CSKA Sofia → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 6% 11% 7% 2 7% 9% 6% 3 6% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 84%
3+ goals 63%
No goals 5%

FC Nordsjaelland and CSKA Sofia expected goals

FC Nordsjaelland 1.85
CSKA Sofia 1.38

Total expected goals: 3.23

FC Nordsjaelland and CSKA Sofia attack and defence ratings

FC Nordsjaelland

Attack 1.22 +22%
Defence 0.92 -8%

CSKA Sofia

Attack 1.27 +27%
Defence 0.91 -9%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

FC Nordsjaelland vs CSKA Sofia: result vs prediction

FC Nordsjaelland 2 – 2 CSKA Sofia

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other League Stage - 2 fixtures

UEFA Europa Conference League

Before and after this match

FC Nordsjaelland vs CSKA Sofia markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 FC Nordsjaelland 61.5% 1.63 -4.6% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 62.6% 1.60 — —
Both teams to score Yes 64.1% 1.56 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 82.5% 1.21 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 52.6% 1.90 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2FC Nordsjaelland61.5%
Draw21.0%
CSKA Sofia17.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.562.6%
Under 2.537.4%
Both teams to scoreYes64.1%
No35.9%
Double chance1X (home or draw)82.5%
12 (either side)79.0%
X2 (draw or away)38.5%
Handicap -1FC Nordsjaelland win26.9%
Push (exactly one goal)20.6%
Loss52.6%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.1%
2-19.3%
1-27.0%

FC Nordsjaelland vs CSKA Sofia stats

FC Nordsjaelland and CSKA Sofia recent form

newest first
FC Nordsjaelland DDDLWW
CSKA Sofia LWDWWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

FC Nordsjaelland and CSKA Sofia going into this match

league record before kick-off

FC Nordsjaelland record

  • They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
  • They average 4.0 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
  • 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

FC Nordsjaelland vs CSKA Sofia head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

FC Nordsjaelland vs CSKA Sofia odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 66.1%, draw 19.8%, away 14.2%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.45 4.96 6.94
Bet365 1.44 4.50 7.00
BetVictor 1.40 4.75 6.50
Betano 1.45 5.10 7.10
Betfair 1.40 4.60 6.50
Dafabet 1.45 5.00 6.60
Marathonbet 1.40 4.75 6.65
Pinnacle 1.44 4.99 6.75
SBO 1.33 4.39 6.18
William Hill 1.40 4.50 6.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.42 ▼ -0.11
X 4.75 ▲ +0.32
2 6.62 ▲ +0.92

12 snapshots recorded, from .