CSKA Sofia
vs
Ludogorets
Garuda Lions Prediction: CSKA Sofia
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
CSKA Sofia vs Ludogorets overview
Garuda Lions analysis: CSKA Sofia vs Ludogorets
| Probability | CSKA Sofia | Draw | Ludogorets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32.5% | 25.7% | 41.8% |
| Market | 41.8% | 28.0% | 30.2% |
| Final | 39.4% | 27.4% | 33.1% |
| Edge | -9.3% | -2.3% | +11.6% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.23, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
CSKA Sofia vs Ludogorets match preview
CSKA Sofia faces Ludogorets in a Bulgaria First League match with CSKA Sofia holding a 39% probability of winning, while Ludogorets stands at 33% and a draw is at 27%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 2-1 in favor of CSKA Sofia, with an 8% likelihood. The expected goals for CSKA Sofia are 1.46 and for Ludogorets, 1.67.
In terms of recent form, CSKA Sofia has recorded a mixed set of results with one loss, two wins, and three draws in their last six matches. Conversely, Ludogorets has been more consistent, achieving four wins and two draws in the same timeframe. The head-to-head record in the last four encounters shows CSKA Sofia with one win, one draw, and Ludogorets securing two victories.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
CSKA Sofia and Ludogorets expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.13
CSKA Sofia and Ludogorets attack and defence ratings
CSKA Sofia
Ludogorets
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
CSKA Sofia vs Ludogorets markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | CSKA Sofia | 39.4% | 2.54 | -9.3% | 2.23 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.6% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.4% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.6% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 67.5% | 1.48 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | CSKA Sofia | 39.4% |
| Draw | 27.4% | |
| Ludogorets | 33.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 39.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.4% |
| No | 36.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 66.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 60.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | CSKA Sofia win | 15.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16.9% | |
| Loss | 67.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.7% |
| 1-2 | 8.9% | |
| 2-1 | 7.8% |
CSKA Sofia vs Ludogorets stats
CSKA Sofia and Ludogorets recent form
| CSKA Sofia |
LWDWWD |
| Ludogorets |
WWWDDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
CSKA Sofia and Ludogorets season so far
CSKA Sofia record
- They have won 7 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They average 3.4 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 57% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Ludogorets record
- They have won 7 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
CSKA Sofia vs Ludogorets head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-25 | Ludogorets | CSKA Sofia | Bulgaria First League | 1-0 |
| 2026-05-03 | CSKA Sofia | Ludogorets | Bulgaria First League | 1-0 |
| 2026-03-14 | Ludogorets | CSKA Sofia | Bulgaria First League | 3-0 |
| 2025-10-05 | CSKA Sofia | Ludogorets | Bulgaria First League | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
CSKA Sofia vs Ludogorets odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 41.8%, draw 28.0%, away 30.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.23 | 3.28 | 3.06 |
| Bet365 | 2.20 | 3.30 | 3.10 |
| Betfair | 2.20 | 3.25 | 3.00 |
| Marathonbet | 2.21 | 3.28 | 3.04 |
| William Hill | 2.20 | 3.00 | 3.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .