CSKA Sofia
vs
Slavia Sofia
Garuda Lions Prediction: CSKA Sofia
1 – 0 Predicted score · 15% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.51 vs 0.73.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — CSKA Sofia is the favourite, not a value bet.
CSKA Sofia vs Slavia Sofia overview
Garuda Lions analysis: CSKA Sofia vs Slavia Sofia
| Probability | CSKA Sofia | Draw | Slavia Sofia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54.8% | 28.4% | 16.8% |
| Market | 76.8% | 15.4% | 7.9% |
| Final | 71.3% | 18.6% | 10.1% |
| Edge | -5.5% | +3.3% | +2.2% |
Why CSKA Sofia
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.51 vs 0.73.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.23, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -12.3% per unit staked (our 71.3% × 1.23 − 1).
CSKA Sofia vs Slavia Sofia match preview
CSKA Sofia is favored to win against Slavia Sofia with a probability of 71%, while a draw stands at 19% and Slavia Sofia at 10%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 1-0, occurring at a rate of 12%. Expected goals suggest CSKA Sofia will score approximately 1.68, compared to Slavia Sofia's 0.88.
In terms of recent form, CSKA Sofia has recorded two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches, while Slavia Sofia has struggled with one win, two draws, and two losses. The head-to-head record in the last three encounters shows CSKA Sofia with one win and two draws, while Slavia Sofia has not secured a victory. The confidence grade for this matchup is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
CSKA Sofia and Slavia Sofia expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.23
CSKA Sofia and Slavia Sofia attack and defence ratings
CSKA Sofia
Slavia Sofia
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
CSKA Sofia vs Slavia Sofia markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | CSKA Sofia | 71.3% | 1.40 | -5.5% | 1.23 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 61.3% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 58.6% | 1.71 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 89.9% | 1.11 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 45.2% | 2.21 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | CSKA Sofia | 71.3% |
| Draw | 18.6% | |
| Slavia Sofia | 10.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 38.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 61.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41.4% |
| No | 58.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 89.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 81.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 28.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | CSKA Sofia win | 29.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.6% | |
| Loss | 45.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 15.0% |
| 1-1 | 12.9% | |
| 2-0 | 12.2% |
CSKA Sofia vs Slavia Sofia stats
CSKA Sofia and Slavia Sofia recent form
| CSKA Sofia |
WDLWDW |
| Slavia Sofia |
DLLDWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
CSKA Sofia and Slavia Sofia season so far
CSKA Sofia record
- They have won 9 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They average 3.2 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Slavia Sofia record
- They have won 2 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 12 matches.
CSKA Sofia vs Slavia Sofia head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | Slavia Sofia | CSKA Sofia | Bulgaria First League | 0-0 |
| 2026-02-21 | CSKA Sofia | Slavia Sofia | Bulgaria First League | 1-0 |
| 2025-08-30 | Slavia Sofia | CSKA Sofia | Bulgaria First League | 2-2 |
| 2025-02-08 | Slavia Sofia | CSKA Sofia | First League | 1-0 |
| 2024-08-17 | CSKA Sofia | Slavia Sofia | First League | 0-1 |
| 2023-12-05 | Slavia Sofia | CSKA Sofia | Cup | 0-1 |
| 2023-12-01 | Slavia Sofia | CSKA Sofia | First League | 1-1 |
| 2023-08-06 | CSKA Sofia | Slavia Sofia | First League | 1-1 |
| 2023-04-09 | Slavia Sofia | CSKA Sofia | First League | 0-2 |
| 2022-09-11 | CSKA Sofia | Slavia Sofia | First League | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
CSKA Sofia vs Slavia Sofia odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 76.8%, draw 15.4%, away 7.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.21 | 6.00 | 11.90 |
| Bet365 | 1.20 | 6.50 | 13.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.20 | 5.75 | 12.00 |
| Betano | 1.23 | 5.70 | 11.00 |
| Betfair | 1.18 | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.20 | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.22 | 6.07 | 11.56 |
| William Hill | 1.20 | 5.50 | 11.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .