Slavia Sofia
vs
Cherno More Varna
Garuda Lions Prediction: Slavia Sofia
1 – 0 Predicted score · 14% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.44 vs 0.83.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Slavia Sofia vs Cherno More Varna overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Slavia Sofia vs Cherno More Varna
| Probability | Slavia Sofia | Draw | Cherno More Varna |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50.2% | 29.3% | 20.4% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 50.2% | 29.3% | 20.4% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Slavia Sofia
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.44 vs 0.83.
Slavia Sofia vs Cherno More Varna match preview
Slavia Sofia hosts Cherno More Varna in a Bulgaria First League match with a kickoff scheduled for October 31, 2026. According to our model, Slavia Sofia has a 50% probability of winning, while a draw stands at 29% and Cherno More Varna at 20%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Slavia Sofia, with an expected goals tally of 1.44 for Slavia Sofia and 0.83 for Cherno More Varna.
In terms of recent form, Slavia Sofia has recorded two losses, a draw, a win, and another draw in their last five matches. In contrast, Cherno More Varna's recent performance shows one win, two draws, and three losses. The head-to-head record between these teams indicates Slavia Sofia has one win and one draw from their last two encounters, while Cherno More Varna has yet to secure a victory.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Slavia Sofia and Cherno More Varna expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.28
Slavia Sofia and Cherno More Varna attack and defence ratings
Slavia Sofia
Cherno More Varna
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Slavia Sofia vs Cherno More Varna markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Slavia Sofia | 50.2% | 1.99 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 60.3% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 55.6% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.6% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.8% | 2.01 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Slavia Sofia | 50.2% |
| Draw | 29.3% | |
| Cherno More Varna | 20.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 60.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44.4% |
| No | 55.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 49.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Slavia Sofia win | 25.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.5% | |
| Loss | 49.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 13.6% |
| 1-1 | 13.6% | |
| 0-0 | 11.5% |
Slavia Sofia vs Cherno More Varna stats
Slavia Sofia and Cherno More Varna recent form
| Slavia Sofia |
LLDWLD |
| Cherno More Varna |
LDDLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Slavia Sofia and Cherno More Varna season so far
Slavia Sofia record
- They have won 2 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
Cherno More Varna record
- They have won 1 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Slavia Sofia vs Cherno More Varna head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | Cherno More Varna | Slavia Sofia | Bulgaria First League | 1-3 |
| 2025-10-25 | Slavia Sofia | Cherno More Varna | Bulgaria First League | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.