Cherno More Varna
vs
Botev Vratsa
Garuda Lions Prediction: Cherno More Varna
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Cherno More Varna is the favourite, not a value bet.
Cherno More Varna vs Botev Vratsa overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Cherno More Varna vs Botev Vratsa
| Probability | Cherno More Varna | Draw | Botev Vratsa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42.1% | 27.5% | 30.4% |
| Market | 47.2% | 28.8% | 23.9% |
| Final | 46.0% | 28.5% | 25.5% |
| Edge | -1.3% | -0.3% | +1.6% |
Best available price on the pick: 1.98, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.0% per unit staked (our 46.0% × 1.98 − 1).
Cherno More Varna vs Botev Vratsa match preview
Cherno More Varna faces Botev Vratsa in a closely contested matchup, with our model assigning probabilities of 37% for a Cherno More Varna win, 28% for a draw, and 35% for a Botev Vratsa victory. The expected goals are relatively balanced, with Cherno More Varna at 1.42 and Botev Vratsa at 1.38. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1 in favor of Cherno More Varna, occurring with an 8% likelihood.
Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Cherno More Varna recording one win in their last five matches, while Botev Vratsa has one win in their last six. In their last three head-to-head encounters, Cherno More Varna has not secured a victory, with two draws and one win for Botev Vratsa. The probabilities suggest a competitive fixture ahead.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Cherno More Varna and Botev Vratsa expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.78
Cherno More Varna and Botev Vratsa attack and defence ratings
Cherno More Varna
Botev Vratsa
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
Cherno More Varna vs Botev Vratsa markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cherno More Varna | 46.0% | 2.18 | -1.3% | 1.98 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.6% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.2% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.5% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.9% | 1.73 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cherno More Varna | 46.0% |
| Draw | 28.5% | |
| Botev Vratsa | 25.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 47.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.2% |
| No | 42.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 54.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Cherno More Varna win | 21.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.6% | |
| Loss | 57.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.1% |
| 2-1 | 9.0% | |
| 1-0 | 8.2% |
Cherno More Varna vs Botev Vratsa stats
Cherno More Varna and Botev Vratsa recent form
| Cherno More Varna |
WLDDLL |
| Botev Vratsa |
DLDDWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Cherno More Varna and Botev Vratsa season so far
Cherno More Varna record
- They have won 1 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Botev Vratsa record
- They have won 2 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game on the road against 0.4 at home.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 11 matches.
Cherno More Varna vs Botev Vratsa head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-19 | Botev Vratsa | Cherno More Varna | Bulgaria First League | 1-1 |
| 2026-02-20 | Cherno More Varna | Botev Vratsa | Bulgaria First League | 0-0 |
| 2025-08-29 | Botev Vratsa | Cherno More Varna | Bulgaria First League | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Cherno More Varna vs Botev Vratsa odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 47.2%, draw 28.8%, away 23.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.94 | 3.18 | 4.00 |
| Bet365 | 1.91 | 3.25 | 3.90 |
| Betano | 1.98 | 3.25 | 3.75 |
| Betfair | 1.95 | 3.10 | 3.70 |
| Dafabet | 1.96 | 3.30 | 3.75 |
| Marathonbet | 1.92 | 3.18 | 3.98 |
| Pinnacle | 1.95 | 3.21 | 4.11 |
| William Hill | 1.95 | 2.90 | 3.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
7 snapshots recorded, from .