Lokomotiv Sofia
vs
Botev Plovdiv
Garuda Lions Prediction: Botev Plovdiv
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Botev Plovdiv is the favourite, not a value bet.
Lokomotiv Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Lokomotiv Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv
| Probability | Lokomotiv Sofia | Draw | Botev Plovdiv |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34.4% | 26.7% | 38.9% |
| Market | 32.5% | 27.6% | 39.9% |
| Final | 33.0% | 27.3% | 39.6% |
| Edge | +0.5% | -0.2% | -0.3% |
Why Botev Plovdiv
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.40, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.9% per unit staked (our 39.6% × 2.40 − 1).
Lokomotiv Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv match preview
Lokomotiv Sofia faces Botev Plovdiv in a Bulgaria First League matchup with kickoff scheduled for October 30, 2026. The probabilities from our model indicate a 33% chance of a Lokomotiv Sofia victory, a 27% likelihood of a draw, and a 40% chance for Botev Plovdiv to win. The expected goals are 1.43 for Lokomotiv Sofia and 1.53 for Botev Plovdiv, suggesting a competitive match.
Recent form shows Lokomotiv Sofia with two draws, one win, and three losses in their last six matches, while Botev Plovdiv has won four of their last six, with one loss and one win. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2, occurring at a rate of 9%. Additionally, there is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% probability that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Lokomotiv Sofia and Botev Plovdiv expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.97
Lokomotiv Sofia and Botev Plovdiv attack and defence ratings
Lokomotiv Sofia
Botev Plovdiv
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
Lokomotiv Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Botev Plovdiv | 39.6% | 2.52 | -0.3% | 2.40 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.9% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.9% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.7% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 61.1% | 1.64 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 33.0% |
| Draw | 27.3% | |
| Botev Plovdiv | 39.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 43.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.9% |
| No | 39.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 60.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 67.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Botev Plovdiv win | 19.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.3% | |
| Loss | 61.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.4% |
| 1-2 | 8.7% | |
| 2-1 | 8.1% |
Lokomotiv Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv stats
Lokomotiv Sofia and Botev Plovdiv recent form
| Lokomotiv Sofia |
DDWLDL |
| Botev Plovdiv |
LWWWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Lokomotiv Sofia and Botev Plovdiv season so far
Lokomotiv Sofia record
- They have won 1 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
Botev Plovdiv record
- They have won 6 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Lokomotiv Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | Botev Plovdiv | Lokomotiv Sofia | Bulgaria First League | 1-1 |
| 2026-03-27 | Botev Plovdiv | Lokomotiv Sofia | Friendlies Clubs | 3-1 |
| 2025-12-06 | Lokomotiv Sofia | Botev Plovdiv | Bulgaria First League | 3-2 |
| 2025-08-10 | Botev Plovdiv | Lokomotiv Sofia | Bulgaria First League | 0-1 |
| 2025-04-18 | Lokomotiv Sofia | Botev Plovdiv | First League | 1-1 |
| 2024-12-15 | Lokomotiv Sofia | Botev Plovdiv | Cup | 1-5 |
| 2024-11-08 | Botev Plovdiv | Lokomotiv Sofia | First League | 2-0 |
| 2024-04-21 | Lokomotiv Sofia | Botev Plovdiv | First League | 0-4 |
| 2023-10-26 | Botev Plovdiv | Lokomotiv Sofia | First League | 6-0 |
| 2023-06-01 | Lokomotiv Sofia | Botev Plovdiv | First League | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Lokomotiv Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 32.5%, draw 27.6%, away 39.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.84 | 3.32 | 2.35 |
| Bet365 | 2.90 | 3.50 | 2.30 |
| BetVictor | 2.80 | 3.40 | 2.30 |
| Betano | 2.85 | 3.35 | 2.32 |
| Betfair | 2.80 | 3.30 | 2.25 |
| Dafabet | 2.90 | 3.45 | 2.31 |
| Marathonbet | 2.81 | 3.32 | 2.33 |
| Pinnacle | 2.99 | 3.35 | 2.40 |
| SBO | 2.64 | 3.04 | 2.15 |
| William Hill | 2.80 | 3.10 | 2.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .