Lokomotiv Plovdiv
vs
Ludogorets
Garuda Lions Prediction: Ludogorets
0 – 1 Predicted score · 17% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.40 vs 0.64.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Ludogorets is the favourite, not a value bet.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Ludogorets overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Ludogorets
| Probability | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | Draw | Ludogorets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 15.9% | 29.8% | 54.3% |
| Market | 12.2% | 22.7% | 65.1% |
| Final | 13.1% | 24.5% | 62.4% |
| Edge | +0.9% | +1.8% | -2.7% |
Why Ludogorets
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.40 vs 0.64.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.45, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.5% per unit staked (our 62.4% × 1.45 − 1).
Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Ludogorets match preview
Lokomotiv Plovdiv faces Ludogorets in a Bulgaria First League matchup on October 31, 2026. The probabilities indicate a challenging game for Lokomotiv, with a 14% chance of winning compared to Ludogorets' 62%. Recent form shows Lokomotiv Plovdiv has drawn twice and lost three times in their last six matches, while Ludogorets has been more successful, winning four out of their last six games.
The expected goals suggest a significant disparity, with Lokomotiv Plovdiv forecasted to score 0.61 and Ludogorets 1.72. The most likely scoreline from our model is 0-1, which aligns with the expectation that Ludogorets will dominate the match. Additionally, there is a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 38% probability that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv and Ludogorets expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.04
Lokomotiv Plovdiv and Ludogorets attack and defence ratings
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Ludogorets
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Ludogorets markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ludogorets | 62.4% | 1.60 | -2.7% | 1.45 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 66.5% | 1.50 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 63.1% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 86.9% | 1.15 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 45.7% | 2.19 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 13.1% |
| Draw | 24.5% | |
| Ludogorets | 62.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 33.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 66.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 36.9% |
| No | 63.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 37.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 86.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Ludogorets win | 27.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26.5% | |
| Loss | 45.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-1 | 17.0% |
| 0-0 | 14.1% | |
| 1-1 | 12.8% |
Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Ludogorets stats
Lokomotiv Plovdiv and Ludogorets recent form
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv |
DDDLWL |
| Ludogorets |
LWWWDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv and Ludogorets season so far
Lokomotiv Plovdiv record
- They have won 2 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They average 0.8 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 12 matches.
Ludogorets record
- They have won 8 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Ludogorets head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Ludogorets | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | Bulgaria First League | 1-0 |
| 2026-05-29 | Ludogorets | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | Bulgaria First League | 0-0 |
| 2026-03-02 | Ludogorets | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | Bulgaria First League | 1-1 |
| 2025-09-14 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | Ludogorets | Bulgaria First League | 1-1 |
| 2025-03-30 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | Ludogorets | First League | 1-0 |
| 2024-10-06 | Ludogorets | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | First League | 1-0 |
| 2024-05-22 | Ludogorets | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | First League | 3-0 |
| 2024-03-30 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | Ludogorets | First League | 1-2 |
| 2023-12-06 | Ludogorets | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | Cup | 4-0 |
| 2023-09-27 | Ludogorets | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | First League | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Ludogorets odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 12.2%, draw 22.7%, away 65.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 8.10 | 4.05 | 1.41 |
| Bet365 | 7.50 | 4.20 | 1.44 |
| BetVictor | 8.00 | 4.00 | 1.40 |
| Betano | 7.30 | 3.95 | 1.45 |
| Betfair | 7.50 | 4.00 | 1.40 |
| Dafabet | 7.20 | 4.20 | 1.45 |
| Marathonbet | 8.00 | 4.05 | 1.40 |
| Pinnacle | 8.31 | 4.06 | 1.41 |
| William Hill | 7.50 | 3.70 | 1.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .